Premiership·Regular Season - 7·
Premiership·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Duncan Nicolson · Scotland
Goals
22%
22%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.913.04safe0.17–2.091.05–2.771.22–4.87safer0.00–2.360.81–3.020.71–5.37actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.645.669.30safe1.78–5.493.95–7.375.73–12.86safer1.28–5.993.49–7.844.77–13.83actual0.003.003.00
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2915.9427.23safe7.59–14.9912.56–19.3220.15–34.31safer6.56–16.0211.63–20.2518.19–36.27actual4.0017.0021.00
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.399.9217.32safe4.88–9.917.62–12.2212.50–22.13safer4.01–10.786.82–13.0210.84–23.80actual4.0011.0015.00
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.847.49safe2.06–5.232.43–5.264.49–10.49safer1.53–5.761.94–5.743.47–11.51actual3.006.009.00
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.495.8010.28safe2.28–6.693.82–7.776.10–14.46safer1.69–7.293.28–8.314.97–15.60actual2.006.008.00
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction44.2756.17safe37.95–50.5949.85–62.49safer36.36–52.1848.26–64.09actual33.0067.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction381515896safe316–446451–580766–1026safer298–464433–597731–1061actual273535808
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction64.7970.44safe60.57–69.0065.93–74.94safer59.27–70.3064.60–76.27
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0311.4122.44safe8.17–13.898.46–14.3516.64–28.24safer7.29–14.777.55–15.2714.84–30.05actual13.0017.0030.00
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.043.56safe0.31–2.730.88–3.211.19–5.93safer0.00–3.070.55–3.540.51–6.61actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.703.68safe0.92–3.040.58–2.821.50–5.86safer0.65–3.310.29–3.110.94–6.42actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.120.29safe0.02–0.330.00–0.310.00–0.64safer0.00–0.480.00–0.450.00–0.93actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.346.18safe2.42–5.250.79–3.903.21–9.15safer2.03–5.640.36–4.332.39–9.97actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.09 0.00–2.36 | 1.00 | 1.91 1.05–2.77 0.81–3.02 | 1.00 | 3.04 1.22–4.87 0.71–5.37 | 2.00 | 22% 22% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.64 1.78–5.49 1.28–5.99 | 0.00 | 5.66 3.95–7.37 3.49–7.84 | 3.00 | 9.30 5.73–12.86 4.77–13.83 | 3.00 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 11.29 7.59–14.99 6.56–16.02 | 4.00 | 15.94 12.56–19.32 11.63–20.25 | 17.00 | 27.23 20.15–34.31 18.19–36.27 | 21.00 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 7.39 4.88–9.91 4.01–10.78 | 4.00 | 9.92 7.62–12.22 6.82–13.02 | 11.00 | 17.32 12.50–22.13 10.84–23.80 | 15.00 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 2.06–5.23 1.53–5.76 | 3.00 | 3.84 2.43–5.26 1.94–5.74 | 6.00 | 7.49 4.49–10.49 3.47–11.51 | 9.00 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.49 2.28–6.69 1.69–7.29 | 2.00 | 5.80 3.82–7.77 3.28–8.31 | 6.00 | 10.28 6.10–14.46 4.97–15.60 | 8.00 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 44.27 37.95–50.59 36.36–52.18 | 33.00 | 56.17 49.85–62.49 48.26–64.09 | 67.00 | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 381 316–446 298–464 | 273 | 515 451–580 433–597 | 535 | 896 766–1026 731–1061 | 808 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.79 60.57–69.00 59.27–70.30 | — | 70.44 65.93–74.94 64.60–76.27 | — | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.17–13.89 7.29–14.77 | 13.00 | 11.41 8.46–14.35 7.55–15.27 | 17.00 | 22.44 16.64–28.24 14.84–30.05 | 30.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.07 | 0.00 | 2.04 0.88–3.21 0.55–3.54 | 0.00 | 3.56 1.19–5.93 0.51–6.61 | 0.00 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.92–3.04 0.65–3.31 | 2.00 | 1.70 0.58–2.82 0.29–3.11 | 2.00 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.94–6.42 | 4.00 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.93 | 0.00 | 15% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.84 2.42–5.25 2.03–5.64 | 2.00 | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | 0.00 | 6.18 3.21–9.15 2.39–9.97 | 2.00 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.