Premiership·Regular Season - 7·
Premiership·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.112.35safe0.28–2.210.25–1.970.53–4.17safer0.02–2.470.00–2.210.02–4.68actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
50%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.118.71safe2.75–6.462.40–5.825.15–12.28safer2.25–6.961.94–6.294.18–13.24actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7711.6624.43safe9.06–16.478.28–15.0417.35–31.51safer8.03–17.507.35–15.9715.39–33.47actual8.0012.0020.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.587.5616.15safe6.07–11.105.26–9.8711.33–20.96safer5.20–11.964.47–10.669.67–22.62actual4.009.0013.00
Blocked shots
48%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.186.72safe1.95–5.121.77–4.603.72–9.72safer1.42–5.661.28–5.092.70–10.74actual1.006.007.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.739.72safe2.79–7.202.75–6.715.54–13.91safer2.19–7.792.22–7.254.41–15.04actual3.008.0011.00
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.9048.06safe46.58–59.2241.74–54.38safer44.99–60.8140.14–55.97actual44.0056.00
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction451432883safe386–516368–497754–1013safer368–534350–515718–1049actual371473844
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction65.7268.44safe61.50–69.9363.93–72.94safer60.20–71.2362.60–74.27
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.2123.95safe8.88–14.599.27–15.1618.15–29.75safer7.99–15.488.35–16.0816.34–31.55actual13.0018.0031.00
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.933.71safe0.58–3.000.76–3.091.34–6.08safer0.23–3.340.43–3.420.66–6.76actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
32%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.183.97safe0.74–2.851.05–3.301.79–6.14safer0.46–3.120.76–3.591.23–6.71actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
36%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.765.19safe1.02–3.851.20–4.312.22–8.16safer0.63–4.240.77–4.741.40–8.98actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.21 0.02–2.47 | 1.00 | 1.11 0.25–1.97 0.00–2.21 | 1.00 | 2.35 0.53–4.17 0.02–4.68 | 2.00 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.75–6.46 2.25–6.96 | 5.00 | 4.11 2.40–5.82 1.94–6.29 | 4.00 | 8.71 5.15–12.28 4.18–13.24 | 9.00 | 50% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.77 9.06–16.47 8.03–17.50 | 8.00 | 11.66 8.28–15.04 7.35–15.97 | 12.00 | 24.43 17.35–31.51 15.39–33.47 | 20.00 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.58 6.07–11.10 5.20–11.96 | 4.00 | 7.56 5.26–9.87 4.47–10.66 | 9.00 | 16.15 11.33–20.96 9.67–22.62 | 13.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.95–5.12 1.42–5.66 | 1.00 | 3.18 1.77–4.60 1.28–5.09 | 6.00 | 6.72 3.72–9.72 2.70–10.74 | 7.00 | 48% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.79–7.20 2.19–7.79 | 3.00 | 4.73 2.75–6.71 2.22–7.25 | 8.00 | 9.72 5.54–13.91 4.41–15.04 | 11.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 52.90 46.58–59.22 44.99–60.81 | 44.00 | 48.06 41.74–54.38 40.14–55.97 | 56.00 | — | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 451 386–516 368–534 | 371 | 432 368–497 350–515 | 473 | 883 754–1013 718–1049 | 844 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.72 61.50–69.93 60.20–71.23 | — | 68.44 63.93–72.94 62.60–74.27 | — | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.88–14.59 7.99–15.48 | 13.00 | 12.21 9.27–15.16 8.35–16.08 | 18.00 | 23.95 18.15–29.75 16.34–31.55 | 31.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.58–3.00 0.23–3.34 | 0.00 | 1.93 0.76–3.09 0.43–3.42 | 0.00 | 3.71 1.34–6.08 0.66–6.76 | 0.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.85 0.46–3.12 | 2.00 | 2.18 1.05–3.30 0.76–3.59 | 0.00 | 3.97 1.79–6.14 1.23–6.71 | 2.00 | 32% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.02–3.85 0.63–4.24 | 3.00 | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 4.00 | 5.19 2.22–8.16 1.40–8.98 | 7.00 | 36% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.