Premiership·Regular Season - 7·
Premiership·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.372.78safe0.45–2.370.51–2.230.96–4.60safer0.19–2.630.27–2.480.45–5.11actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.479.86safe2.54–6.253.76–7.176.30–13.43safer2.04–6.753.29–7.645.33–14.39actual0.009.009.00
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8714.2129.08safe11.16–18.5710.84–17.5922.00–36.16safer10.13–19.609.91–18.5220.04–38.12actual10.0013.0023.00
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.928.8617.78safe6.40–11.446.56–11.1612.96–22.59safer5.54–12.305.76–11.9511.30–24.26actual6.009.0015.00
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.658.01safe2.78–5.942.24–5.075.01–11.01safer2.24–6.481.75–5.553.99–12.03actual4.003.007.00
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.9510.12safe2.96–7.372.98–6.935.94–14.31safer2.37–7.972.44–7.474.81–15.44actual4.007.0011.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.8350.38safe44.51–57.1444.06–56.70safer42.91–58.7442.47–58.30actual60.0040.00
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction435440875safe369–500375–504745–1004safer352–518358–522709–1040actual510350860
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction69.8873.67safe65.66–74.1069.16–78.18safer64.36–75.4067.83–79.51
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1411.0422.18safe8.29–14.008.09–13.9816.38–27.98safer7.40–14.887.17–14.9014.57–29.78actual13.0013.0026.00
Offsides
36%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.773.39safe0.42–2.840.60–2.931.02–5.76safer0.07–3.180.27–3.260.34–6.44actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.963.58safe0.56–2.670.84–3.081.40–5.76safer0.29–2.950.55–3.370.84–6.32actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.866.00safe1.72–4.551.31–4.423.03–8.96safer1.33–4.930.88–4.852.21–9.78actual6.000.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.37 0.19–2.63 | 0.00 | 1.37 0.51–2.23 0.27–2.48 | 3.00 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.45–5.11 | 3.00 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.25 2.04–6.75 | 0.00 | 5.47 3.76–7.17 3.29–7.64 | 9.00 | 9.86 6.30–13.43 5.33–14.39 | 9.00 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 14.87 11.16–18.57 10.13–19.60 | 10.00 | 14.21 10.84–17.59 9.91–18.52 | 13.00 | 29.08 22.00–36.16 20.04–38.12 | 23.00 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 6.40–11.44 5.54–12.30 | 6.00 | 8.86 6.56–11.16 5.76–11.95 | 9.00 | 17.78 12.96–22.59 11.30–24.26 | 15.00 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.78–5.94 2.24–6.48 | 4.00 | 3.65 2.24–5.07 1.75–5.55 | 3.00 | 8.01 5.01–11.01 3.99–12.03 | 7.00 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.37 2.37–7.97 | 4.00 | 4.95 2.98–6.93 2.44–7.47 | 7.00 | 10.12 5.94–14.31 4.81–15.44 | 11.00 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 50.83 44.51–57.14 42.91–58.74 | 60.00 | 50.38 44.06–56.70 42.47–58.30 | 40.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 435 369–500 352–518 | 510 | 440 375–504 358–522 | 350 | 875 745–1004 709–1040 | 860 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.88 65.66–74.10 64.36–75.40 | — | 73.67 69.16–78.18 67.83–79.51 | — | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.14 8.29–14.00 7.40–14.88 | 13.00 | 11.04 8.09–13.98 7.17–14.90 | 13.00 | 22.18 16.38–27.98 14.57–29.78 | 26.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.42–2.84 0.07–3.18 | 2.00 | 1.77 0.60–2.93 0.27–3.26 | 3.00 | 3.39 1.02–5.76 0.34–6.44 | 5.00 | 36% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.56–2.67 0.29–2.95 | 2.00 | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | 2.00 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.32 | 4.00 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.72–4.55 1.33–4.93 | 6.00 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | 0.00 | 6.00 3.03–8.96 2.21–9.78 | 6.00 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+