Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: John Beaton · Scotland
Goals
53%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.082.85safe0.80–2.730.22–1.941.03–4.67safer0.54–2.990.00–2.190.52–5.18actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.433.679.10safe3.58–7.291.96–5.375.54–12.66safer3.08–7.791.49–5.844.57–13.63actual1.008.009.00
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7710.3124.08safe10.07–17.476.93–13.6816.99–31.16safer9.04–18.506.00–14.6115.03–33.12actual5.0015.0020.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.087.4617.54safe7.56–12.605.16–9.7612.73–22.36safer6.70–13.464.36–10.5611.07–24.02actual4.0010.0014.00
Blocked shots
47%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.246.77safe1.95–5.111.83–4.663.78–9.77safer1.41–5.651.34–5.152.75–10.79actual1.003.004.00
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.924.5210.43safe3.71–8.122.54–6.496.25–14.61safer3.12–8.722.00–7.035.12–15.75actual8.004.0012.00
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction57.9942.15safe51.67–64.3135.83–48.47safer50.08–65.9134.24–50.07actual55.0045.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction575397972safe510–640332–461842–1102safer492–658315–479807–1137actual434357791
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction78.6368.62safe74.41–82.8464.12–73.13safer73.11–84.1462.78–74.46
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8010.8621.66safe7.95–13.667.91–13.8015.86–27.46safer7.06–14.556.99–14.7214.05–29.27actual16.0019.0035.00
Offsides
49%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.503.47safe0.76–3.180.34–2.671.10–5.84safer0.41–3.520.01–3.000.42–6.52actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.144.26safe1.07–3.181.02–3.262.09–6.44safer0.80–3.460.73–3.551.53–7.00actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
18%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.855.08safe0.82–3.651.29–4.402.11–8.05safer0.43–4.030.86–4.831.29–8.87actual6.001.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.73 0.54–2.99 | 0.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 1.00 | 53% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.58–7.29 3.08–7.79 | 1.00 | 3.67 1.96–5.37 1.49–5.84 | 8.00 | 9.10 5.54–12.66 4.57–13.63 | 9.00 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 13.77 10.07–17.47 9.04–18.50 | 5.00 | 10.31 6.93–13.68 6.00–14.61 | 15.00 | 24.08 16.99–31.16 15.03–33.12 | 20.00 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.08 7.56–12.60 6.70–13.46 | 4.00 | 7.46 5.16–9.76 4.36–10.56 | 10.00 | 17.54 12.73–22.36 11.07–24.02 | 14.00 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.95–5.11 1.41–5.65 | 1.00 | 3.24 1.83–4.66 1.34–5.15 | 3.00 | 6.77 3.78–9.77 2.75–10.79 | 4.00 | 47% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 5.92 3.71–8.12 3.12–8.72 | 8.00 | 4.52 2.54–6.49 2.00–7.03 | 4.00 | 10.43 6.25–14.61 5.12–15.75 | 12.00 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 57.99 51.67–64.31 50.08–65.91 | 55.00 | 42.15 35.83–48.47 34.24–50.07 | 45.00 | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 575 510–640 492–658 | 434 | 397 332–461 315–479 | 357 | 972 842–1102 807–1137 | 791 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.63 74.41–82.84 73.11–84.14 | — | 68.62 64.12–73.13 62.78–74.46 | — | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.80 7.95–13.66 7.06–14.55 | 16.00 | 10.86 7.91–13.80 6.99–14.72 | 19.00 | 21.66 15.86–27.46 14.05–29.27 | 35.00 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.41–3.52 | 3.00 | 1.50 0.34–2.67 0.01–3.00 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | 5.00 | 49% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.07–3.18 0.80–3.46 | 2.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 3.00 | 4.26 2.09–6.44 1.53–7.00 | 5.00 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.82–3.65 0.43–4.03 | 6.00 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.83 | 1.00 | 5.08 2.11–8.05 1.29–8.87 | 7.00 | 31% 18% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+