Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.062.53safe0.50–2.430.21–1.920.71–4.35safer0.25–2.690.00–2.150.23–4.83
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.253.448.69safe3.39–7.121.69–5.185.09–12.30safer2.90–7.611.23–5.654.13–13.25
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction17.6310.2327.87safe13.71–21.566.67–13.7920.38–35.35safer12.62–22.655.71–14.7518.33–37.40
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.196.4916.68safe7.25–13.133.81–9.1711.06–22.31safer6.42–13.963.07–9.919.49–23.87
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.852.917.76safe2.96–6.731.26–4.574.23–11.30safer2.42–7.270.77–5.063.19–12.33
Corners
68%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.294.2910.58safe4.08–8.502.29–6.296.37–14.80safer3.50–9.081.76–6.825.26–15.90
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.3043.25safe49.51–63.0936.47–50.04safer47.84–64.7634.80–51.71
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction483358841safe416–550291–424707–974safer398–569274–442671–1010
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction68.2265.50safe64.19–72.2561.18–69.82safer62.89–73.5459.87–71.13
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8513.4126.26safe10.01–15.6910.47–16.3620.48–32.04safer9.25–16.449.72–17.1018.97–33.55
Offsides
44%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.593.45safe0.70–3.020.50–2.691.20–5.71safer0.40–3.320.21–2.970.61–6.30
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.244.21safe0.92–3.021.11–3.372.04–6.39safer0.66–3.290.82–3.661.48–6.95
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.876.25safe0.94–3.812.32–5.433.26–9.24safer0.55–4.201.89–5.852.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 46% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.25 3.39–7.12 2.90–7.61 | 3.44 1.69–5.18 1.23–5.65 | 8.69 5.09–12.30 4.13–13.25 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 17.63 13.71–21.56 12.62–22.65 | 10.23 6.67–13.79 5.71–14.75 | 27.87 20.38–35.35 18.33–37.40 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 10.19 7.25–13.13 6.42–13.96 | 6.49 3.81–9.17 3.07–9.91 | 16.68 11.06–22.31 9.49–23.87 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 2.96–6.73 2.42–7.27 | 2.91 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 7.76 4.23–11.30 3.19–12.33 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.08–8.50 3.50–9.08 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 10.58 6.37–14.80 5.26–15.90 | 68% 22% |
| Possession % | 56.30 49.51–63.09 47.84–64.76 | 43.25 36.47–50.04 34.80–51.71 | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 483 416–550 398–569 | 358 291–424 274–442 | 841 707–974 671–1010 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.22 64.19–72.25 62.89–73.54 | 65.50 61.18–69.82 59.87–71.13 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 12.85 10.01–15.69 9.25–16.44 | 13.41 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.10 | 26.26 20.48–32.04 18.97–33.55 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.97 | 3.45 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 44% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.21 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.87 2.32–5.43 1.89–5.85 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.