Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.252.45safe0.24–2.170.39–2.100.63–4.27safer0.00–2.420.16–2.330.15–4.75
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.014.268.27safe2.15–5.882.51–6.004.67–11.88safer1.66–6.372.05–6.473.71–12.83
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7513.1925.94safe8.82–16.679.63–16.7518.45–33.42safer7.73–17.768.67–17.7116.40–35.48
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.368.1716.54safe5.42–11.315.49–10.8610.91–22.16safer4.59–12.134.76–11.599.35–23.73
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.354.207.55safe1.47–5.242.54–5.854.02–11.09safer0.93–5.782.05–6.342.98–12.12
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.949.91safe2.76–7.192.94–6.945.69–14.12safer2.18–7.762.40–7.474.59–15.23
Possession %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction45.8954.03safe39.10–52.6847.25–60.82safer37.43–54.3545.58–62.49
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction398461859safe331–465395–528725–993safer312–483377–545690–1028
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction63.6271.77safe59.59–67.6567.45–76.10safer58.30–68.9466.14–77.41
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1213.2626.38safe10.28–15.9610.32–16.2120.60–32.17safer9.53–16.719.57–16.9619.10–33.67
Offsides
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.803.43safe0.47–2.790.71–2.901.18–5.69safer0.17–3.090.42–3.180.59–6.28
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.264.06safe0.75–2.851.13–3.391.88–6.24safer0.48–3.120.84–3.681.32–6.79
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.755.70safe1.52–4.391.19–4.302.71–8.70safer1.13–4.780.77–4.731.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.45 0.63–4.27 0.15–4.75 | 35% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.01 2.15–5.88 1.66–6.37 | 4.26 2.51–6.00 2.05–6.47 | 8.27 4.67–11.88 3.71–12.83 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.75 8.82–16.67 7.73–17.76 | 13.19 9.63–16.75 8.67–17.71 | 25.94 18.45–33.42 16.40–35.48 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.36 5.42–11.31 4.59–12.13 | 8.17 5.49–10.86 4.76–11.59 | 16.54 10.91–22.16 9.35–23.73 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.47–5.24 0.93–5.78 | 4.20 2.54–5.85 2.05–6.34 | 7.55 4.02–11.09 2.98–12.12 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.19 2.18–7.76 | 4.94 2.94–6.94 2.40–7.47 | 9.91 5.69–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 45.89 39.10–52.68 37.43–54.35 | 54.03 47.25–60.82 45.58–62.49 | — | 29% 66% |
| Passes | 398 331–465 312–483 | 461 395–528 377–545 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.62 59.59–67.65 58.30–68.94 | 71.77 67.45–76.10 66.14–77.41 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 13.12 10.28–15.96 9.53–16.71 | 13.26 10.32–16.21 9.57–16.96 | 26.38 20.60–32.17 19.10–33.67 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 1.80 0.71–2.90 0.42–3.18 | 3.43 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 35% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.12 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.06 1.88–6.24 1.32–6.79 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 2.75 1.19–4.30 0.77–4.73 | 5.70 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.