Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.262.62safe0.40–2.330.40–2.110.80–4.44safer0.15–2.590.17–2.340.32–4.92
Shots on target
43%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.529.05safe2.67–6.392.78–6.265.45–12.66safer2.18–6.882.31–6.734.49–13.61
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3812.2725.66safe9.46–17.318.71–15.8418.17–33.14safer8.37–18.407.75–16.8016.12–35.19
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.817.6616.47safe5.87–11.764.98–10.3410.85–22.10safer5.04–12.594.24–11.089.28–23.67
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.622.886.49safe1.74–5.501.22–4.532.96–10.03safer1.19–6.040.73–5.021.92–11.07
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.9010.51safe3.40–7.832.90–6.906.30–14.73safer2.83–8.402.37–7.435.19–15.83
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.1753.62safe39.38–52.9646.83–60.40safer37.71–54.6345.16–62.07
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction417491909safe350–485425–558775–1043safer332–503408–575740–1078
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction66.3572.64safe62.32–70.3868.32–76.96safer61.02–71.6767.01–78.27
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7411.9824.73safe9.91–15.589.04–14.9318.94–30.51safer9.15–16.348.29–15.6817.44–32.01
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.323.31safe0.82–3.140.23–2.421.05–5.56safer0.52–3.450.00–2.700.46–6.15
Yellow cards
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.164.14safe0.93–3.031.03–3.291.96–6.32safer0.66–3.290.74–3.581.41–6.88
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.076.04safe1.53–4.411.52–4.633.05–9.03safer1.15–4.791.09–5.052.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 39% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 4.52 2.78–6.26 2.31–6.73 | 9.05 5.45–12.66 4.49–13.61 | 43% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.38 9.46–17.31 8.37–18.40 | 12.27 8.71–15.84 7.75–16.80 | 25.66 18.17–33.14 16.12–35.19 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.81 5.87–11.76 5.04–12.59 | 7.66 4.98–10.34 4.24–11.08 | 16.47 10.85–22.10 9.28–23.67 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.74–5.50 1.19–6.04 | 2.88 1.22–4.53 0.73–5.02 | 6.49 2.96–10.03 1.92–11.07 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.83 2.83–8.40 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.43 | 10.51 6.30–14.73 5.19–15.83 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 46.17 39.38–52.96 37.71–54.63 | 53.62 46.83–60.40 45.16–62.07 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 417 350–485 332–503 | 491 425–558 408–575 | 909 775–1043 740–1078 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.35 62.32–70.38 61.02–71.67 | 72.64 68.32–76.96 67.01–78.27 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.74 9.91–15.58 9.15–16.34 | 11.98 9.04–14.93 8.29–15.68 | 24.73 18.94–30.51 17.44–32.01 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.45 | 1.32 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.70 | 3.31 1.05–5.56 0.46–6.15 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 4.14 1.96–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.53–4.41 1.15–4.79 | 3.07 1.52–4.63 1.09–5.05 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.24–9.85 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.