Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.182.50safe0.35–2.290.33–2.040.68–4.33safer0.10–2.540.10–2.270.20–4.81
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.463.818.27safe2.60–6.332.06–5.554.67–11.88safer2.11–6.821.60–6.013.71–12.83
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0911.7026.80safe11.17–19.028.14–15.2719.31–34.29safer10.08–20.117.18–16.2317.26–36.34
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.737.4316.16safe5.79–11.674.75–10.1110.54–21.78safer4.96–12.504.01–10.858.97–23.35
Blocked shots
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.008.46safe2.58–6.352.35–5.654.93–12.00safer2.04–6.891.86–6.153.89–13.04
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.4810.19safe3.49–7.922.48–6.485.98–14.41safer2.92–8.491.95–7.024.87–15.51
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.4645.71safe47.67–61.2538.93–52.50safer46.00–62.9237.25–54.17
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction500404905safe433–568338–471771–1039safer415–586320–488736–1074
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction68.2168.70safe64.18–72.2464.37–73.02safer62.89–73.5363.06–74.33
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2413.4024.64safe8.40–14.0710.46–16.3518.86–30.42safer7.64–14.839.71–17.1017.35–31.93
Offsides
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.903.37safe0.31–2.630.81–2.991.11–5.62safer0.01–2.930.52–3.280.52–6.21
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.993.94safe0.90–2.990.86–3.121.76–6.12safer0.63–3.260.57–3.411.20–6.67
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.325.86safe1.11–3.981.76–4.882.87–8.85safer0.72–4.371.34–5.302.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 3.81 2.06–5.55 1.60–6.01 | 8.27 4.67–11.88 3.71–12.83 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 15.09 11.17–19.02 10.08–20.11 | 11.70 8.14–15.27 7.18–16.23 | 26.80 19.31–34.29 17.26–36.34 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.79–11.67 4.96–12.50 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.01–10.85 | 16.16 10.54–21.78 8.97–23.35 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 2.58–6.35 2.04–6.89 | 4.00 2.35–5.65 1.86–6.15 | 8.46 4.93–12.00 3.89–13.04 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.49–7.92 2.92–8.49 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.02 | 10.19 5.98–14.41 4.87–15.51 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 54.46 47.67–61.25 46.00–62.92 | 45.71 38.93–52.50 37.25–54.17 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 500 433–568 415–586 | 404 338–471 320–488 | 905 771–1039 736–1074 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.21 64.18–72.24 62.89–73.53 | 68.70 64.37–73.02 63.06–74.33 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.24 8.40–14.07 7.64–14.83 | 13.40 10.46–16.35 9.71–17.10 | 24.64 18.86–30.42 17.35–31.93 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 1.90 0.81–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.37 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.94 1.76–6.12 1.20–6.67 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 3.32 1.76–4.88 1.34–5.30 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.