Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.082.32safe0.26–2.200.23–1.940.49–4.14safer0.01–2.450.00–2.170.01–4.62
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.847.95safe2.25–5.972.10–5.594.35–11.56safer1.76–6.461.64–6.053.39–12.52
Total shots
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0712.0124.09safe8.15–16.008.45–15.5816.60–31.58safer7.06–17.097.49–16.5414.55–33.63
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.007.1315.13safe5.06–10.944.45–9.819.51–20.76safer4.23–11.773.71–10.557.94–22.32
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.196.54safe1.47–5.231.53–4.843.00–10.07safer0.92–5.771.04–5.331.97–11.11
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.659.75safe2.89–7.322.65–6.655.54–13.97safer2.32–7.902.11–7.184.43–15.07
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.3452.61safe40.55–54.1345.83–59.40safer38.88–55.8044.15–61.07
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction404466871safe337–472400–533737–1004safer319–490382–550701–1040
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction64.9070.53safe60.87–68.9366.20–74.85safer59.57–70.2264.89–76.16
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9912.7426.73safe11.15–16.829.80–15.6920.95–32.51safer10.39–17.589.05–16.4419.44–34.02
Offsides
49%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.373.22safe0.69–3.010.28–2.470.97–5.48safer0.39–3.310.00–2.750.38–6.06
Yellow cards
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.414.68safe1.23–3.331.28–3.532.50–6.86safer0.96–3.590.99–3.831.95–7.42
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.665.29safe1.19–4.061.10–4.222.29–8.28safer0.80–4.450.68–4.641.48–9.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.32 0.49–4.14 0.01–4.62 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 3.84 2.10–5.59 1.64–6.05 | 7.95 4.35–11.56 3.39–12.52 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.15–16.00 7.06–17.09 | 12.01 8.45–15.58 7.49–16.54 | 24.09 16.60–31.58 14.55–33.63 | 46% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 7.13 4.45–9.81 3.71–10.55 | 15.13 9.51–20.76 7.94–22.32 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.47–5.23 0.92–5.77 | 3.19 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 6.54 3.00–10.07 1.97–11.11 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.89–7.32 2.32–7.90 | 4.65 2.65–6.65 2.11–7.18 | 9.75 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.07 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 47.34 40.55–54.13 38.88–55.80 | 52.61 45.83–59.40 44.15–61.07 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 404 337–472 319–490 | 466 400–533 382–550 | 871 737–1004 701–1040 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.90 60.87–68.93 59.57–70.22 | 70.53 66.20–74.85 64.89–76.16 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 13.99 11.15–16.82 10.39–17.58 | 12.74 9.80–15.69 9.05–16.44 | 26.73 20.95–32.51 19.44–34.02 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.69–3.01 0.39–3.31 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.75 | 3.22 0.97–5.48 0.38–6.06 | 49% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.23–3.33 0.96–3.59 | 2.41 1.28–3.53 0.99–3.83 | 4.68 2.50–6.86 1.95–7.42 | 38% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 2.66 1.10–4.22 0.68–4.64 | 5.29 2.29–8.28 1.48–9.09 | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+