Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.022.37safe0.39–2.320.16–1.870.55–4.19safer0.14–2.580.00–2.100.07–4.67
Shots on target
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.357.97safe2.76–6.491.61–5.094.37–11.58safer2.27–6.981.14–5.563.41–12.54
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4910.4024.89safe10.56–18.416.84–13.9617.40–32.38safer9.47–19.505.88–14.9215.35–34.43
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.516.5115.02safe5.57–11.453.83–9.199.39–20.64safer4.74–12.283.09–9.927.83–22.21
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.247.14safe2.01–5.781.59–4.903.60–10.67safer1.47–6.321.10–5.392.57–11.71
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.169.86safe3.49–7.922.16–6.165.65–14.08safer2.91–8.491.63–6.694.54–15.18
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction54.1046.39safe47.31–60.8939.60–53.17safer45.64–62.5637.93–54.84
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction493378871safe426–560312–445737–1005safer407–578294–462702–1040
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction66.4267.42safe62.39–70.4563.10–71.74safer61.10–71.7461.79–73.05
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3414.5026.84safe9.50–15.1711.56–17.4521.06–32.62safer8.74–15.9310.81–18.1919.55–34.12
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.703.19safe0.33–2.650.61–2.790.94–5.44safer0.03–2.950.32–3.080.35–6.03
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.464.53safe1.01–3.111.34–3.592.35–6.70safer0.75–3.381.04–3.881.79–7.26
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.140.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.57safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.225.50safe0.85–3.721.66–4.782.51–8.50safer0.46–4.111.24–5.201.70–9.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.58 | 1.02 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.37 0.55–4.19 0.07–4.67 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.76–6.49 2.27–6.98 | 3.35 1.61–5.09 1.14–5.56 | 7.97 4.37–11.58 3.41–12.54 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.49 10.56–18.41 9.47–19.50 | 10.40 6.84–13.96 5.88–14.92 | 24.89 17.40–32.38 15.35–34.43 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.51 5.57–11.45 4.74–12.28 | 6.51 3.83–9.19 3.09–9.92 | 15.02 9.39–20.64 7.83–22.21 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.01–5.78 1.47–6.32 | 3.24 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 7.14 3.60–10.67 2.57–11.71 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.49–7.92 2.91–8.49 | 4.16 2.16–6.16 1.63–6.69 | 9.86 5.65–14.08 4.54–15.18 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 54.10 47.31–60.89 45.64–62.56 | 46.39 39.60–53.17 37.93–54.84 | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 493 426–560 407–578 | 378 312–445 294–462 | 871 737–1005 702–1040 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.42 62.39–70.45 61.10–71.74 | 67.42 63.10–71.74 61.79–73.05 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 12.34 9.50–15.17 8.74–15.93 | 14.50 11.56–17.45 10.81–18.19 | 26.84 21.06–32.62 19.55–34.12 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.03–2.95 | 1.70 0.61–2.79 0.32–3.08 | 3.19 0.94–5.44 0.35–6.03 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.11 0.75–3.38 | 2.46 1.34–3.59 1.04–3.88 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.85–3.72 0.46–4.11 | 3.22 1.66–4.78 1.24–5.20 | 5.50 2.51–8.50 1.70–9.31 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.