Premiership·Regular Season - 11·
Premiership·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.252.58safe0.36–2.300.39–2.100.76–4.40safer0.11–2.550.17–2.330.28–4.88
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.984.108.08safe2.11–5.842.36–5.854.47–11.68safer1.62–6.331.89–6.313.52–12.64
Total shots
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8513.0425.90safe8.93–16.789.48–16.6018.41–33.38safer7.84–17.878.52–17.5616.36–35.43
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.198.4916.68safe5.25–11.135.81–11.1711.06–22.30safer4.42–11.965.07–11.919.49–23.87
Blocked shots
37%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.887.35safe1.58–5.352.23–5.543.81–10.88safer1.04–5.891.74–6.032.78–11.92
Corners
49%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.585.1610.74safe3.37–7.793.16–7.166.52–14.95safer2.79–8.372.62–7.695.42–16.06
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.2351.84safe41.44–55.0245.06–58.63safer39.77–56.6943.39–60.30
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction402436837safe335–469369–502704–971safer317–487352–520668–1007
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction63.8969.98safe59.86–67.9265.66–74.31safer58.56–69.2164.35–75.62
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0013.3025.30safe9.16–14.8310.36–16.2519.52–31.08safer8.40–15.599.61–17.0018.01–32.59
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.783.52safe0.58–2.900.69–2.871.26–5.77safer0.28–3.200.40–3.160.67–6.36
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.123.86safe0.69–2.780.99–3.251.68–6.04safer0.42–3.050.70–3.541.12–6.59
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.675.54safe1.44–4.311.11–4.222.55–8.53safer1.05–4.700.68–4.651.73–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.17–2.33 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.11–5.84 1.62–6.33 | 4.10 2.36–5.85 1.89–6.31 | 8.08 4.47–11.68 3.52–12.64 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.85 8.93–16.78 7.84–17.87 | 13.04 9.48–16.60 8.52–17.56 | 25.90 18.41–33.38 16.36–35.43 | 45% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.19 5.25–11.13 4.42–11.96 | 8.49 5.81–11.17 5.07–11.91 | 16.68 11.06–22.30 9.49–23.87 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.58–5.35 1.04–5.89 | 3.88 2.23–5.54 1.74–6.03 | 7.35 3.81–10.88 2.78–11.92 | 37% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.58 3.37–7.79 2.79–8.37 | 5.16 3.16–7.16 2.62–7.69 | 10.74 6.52–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 49% 39% |
| Possession % | 48.23 41.44–55.02 39.77–56.69 | 51.84 45.06–58.63 43.39–60.30 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 402 335–469 317–487 | 436 369–502 352–520 | 837 704–971 668–1007 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.89 59.86–67.92 58.56–69.21 | 69.98 65.66–74.31 64.35–75.62 | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.16–14.83 8.40–15.59 | 13.30 10.36–16.25 9.61–17.00 | 25.30 19.52–31.08 18.01–32.59 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.78 0.69–2.87 0.40–3.16 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.78 0.42–3.05 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.86 1.68–6.04 1.12–6.59 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 5.54 2.55–8.53 1.73–9.34 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+