Premiership·Regular Season - 11·
Premiership·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.222.73safe0.54–2.480.37–2.070.91–4.55safer0.29–2.730.14–2.300.43–5.03
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.138.80safe2.81–6.542.39–5.875.20–12.41safer2.32–7.021.92–6.344.24–13.37
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5912.2325.81safe9.66–17.518.67–15.7918.33–33.30safer8.57–18.607.71–16.7516.28–35.35
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.587.9416.53safe5.64–11.535.26–10.6310.90–22.15safer4.81–12.354.53–11.369.34–23.72
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.804.037.83safe1.92–5.692.37–5.684.30–11.37safer1.38–6.231.88–6.173.26–12.40
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.814.8310.64safe3.60–8.022.83–6.836.42–14.85safer3.02–8.602.29–7.365.32–15.96
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.5849.63safe44.78–58.3742.84–56.41safer43.12–60.0441.17–58.09
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction446407852safe379–513340–473719–986safer360–531323–491683–1022
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction67.6969.18safe63.66–71.7264.85–73.50safer62.36–73.0163.54–74.81
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8613.7126.58safe10.03–15.7010.77–16.6620.80–32.36safer9.27–16.4610.02–17.4119.29–33.87
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.283.20safe0.77–3.090.18–2.370.95–5.46safer0.47–3.390.00–2.660.36–6.05
Yellow cards
31%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.394.30safe0.86–2.961.26–3.522.12–6.48safer0.59–3.220.97–3.811.56–7.03
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.265.87safe1.18–4.051.70–4.822.88–8.87safer0.79–4.441.28–5.242.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.48 0.29–2.73 | 1.22 0.37–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.54 2.32–7.02 | 4.13 2.39–5.87 1.92–6.34 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.37 | 50% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.59 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.60 | 12.23 8.67–15.79 7.71–16.75 | 25.81 18.33–33.30 16.28–35.35 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.58 5.64–11.53 4.81–12.35 | 7.94 5.26–10.63 4.53–11.36 | 16.53 10.90–22.15 9.34–23.72 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 1.92–5.69 1.38–6.23 | 4.03 2.37–5.68 1.88–6.17 | 7.83 4.30–11.37 3.26–12.40 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.60–8.02 3.02–8.60 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.29–7.36 | 10.64 6.42–14.85 5.32–15.96 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.58 44.78–58.37 43.12–60.04 | 49.63 42.84–56.41 41.17–58.09 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 446 379–513 360–531 | 407 340–473 323–491 | 852 719–986 683–1022 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.69 63.66–71.72 62.36–73.01 | 69.18 64.85–73.50 63.54–74.81 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 12.86 10.03–15.70 9.27–16.46 | 13.71 10.77–16.66 10.02–17.41 | 26.58 20.80–32.36 19.29–33.87 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.28 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 3.20 0.95–5.46 0.36–6.05 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.56–7.03 | 31% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.26 1.70–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.87 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.