Premiership·Regular Season - 12·
Premiership·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.232.60safe0.40–2.340.37–2.080.78–4.42safer0.15–2.590.14–2.310.30–4.90
Shots on target
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.038.46safe2.57–6.302.28–5.774.86–12.07safer2.08–6.791.82–6.233.90–13.02
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0512.1825.24safe9.13–16.988.62–15.7517.75–32.73safer8.04–18.077.66–16.7115.70–34.78
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.557.7016.25safe5.61–11.495.02–10.3810.62–21.87safer4.78–12.324.28–11.129.06–23.44
Blocked shots
46%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.306.86safe1.68–5.451.64–4.953.33–10.40safer1.14–5.991.15–5.442.29–11.43
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.5210.01safe3.28–7.712.52–6.525.80–14.22safer2.71–8.281.98–7.054.69–15.33
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.2954.37safe39.50–53.0847.59–61.16safer37.83–54.7545.91–62.83
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction418466884safe351–485400–532750–1018safer333–503382–550715–1053
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction64.9570.40safe60.92–68.9866.08–74.73safer59.62–70.2764.77–76.04
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7412.7125.45safe9.90–15.589.76–15.6519.66–31.23safer9.15–16.339.01–16.4018.16–32.73
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.683.27safe0.43–2.750.58–2.771.02–5.52safer0.13–3.060.29–3.060.43–6.11
Yellow cards
38%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.923.79safe0.82–2.920.79–3.041.61–5.96safer0.55–3.190.50–3.341.05–6.52
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.135.91safe1.35–4.221.57–4.682.91–8.90safer0.96–4.611.14–5.112.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 40% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.57–6.30 2.08–6.79 | 4.03 2.28–5.77 1.82–6.23 | 8.46 4.86–12.07 3.90–13.02 | 49% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.05 9.13–16.98 8.04–18.07 | 12.18 8.62–15.75 7.66–16.71 | 25.24 17.75–32.73 15.70–34.78 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 5.61–11.49 4.78–12.32 | 7.70 5.02–10.38 4.28–11.12 | 16.25 10.62–21.87 9.06–23.44 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.68–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 3.30 1.64–4.95 1.15–5.44 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.43 | 46% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.28–7.71 2.71–8.28 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.98–7.05 | 10.01 5.80–14.22 4.69–15.33 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 46.29 39.50–53.08 37.83–54.75 | 54.37 47.59–61.16 45.91–62.83 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 418 351–485 333–503 | 466 400–532 382–550 | 884 750–1018 715–1053 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.95 60.92–68.98 59.62–70.27 | 70.40 66.08–74.73 64.77–76.04 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.74 9.90–15.58 9.15–16.33 | 12.71 9.76–15.65 9.01–16.40 | 25.45 19.66–31.23 18.16–32.73 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.06 | 1.68 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.06 | 3.27 1.02–5.52 0.43–6.11 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.55–3.19 | 1.92 0.79–3.04 0.50–3.34 | 3.79 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 38% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.13 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.11 | 5.91 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.