Premiership·Regular Season - 28·
Premiership·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.262.63safe0.40–2.340.41–2.120.81–4.45safer0.15–2.590.18–2.340.33–4.93
Shots on target
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.693.728.40safe2.82–6.551.97–5.464.80–12.01safer2.34–7.041.51–5.923.84–12.96
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9410.9324.88safe10.02–17.877.37–14.5017.39–32.36safer8.93–18.966.41–15.4615.34–34.41
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.717.2715.97safe5.76–11.654.59–9.9510.35–21.60safer4.93–12.483.85–10.698.78–23.16
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.046.82safe1.89–5.661.39–4.703.28–10.35safer1.35–6.200.90–5.192.25–11.39
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.8310.14safe3.09–7.522.83–6.835.93–14.35safer2.52–8.102.30–7.374.82–15.46
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.7045.71safe47.91–61.4938.93–52.49safer46.24–63.1637.25–54.17
Passes
79%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction494395889safe426–561329–462755–1023safer408–579311–479720–1058
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction67.0267.09safe62.99–71.0562.76–71.41safer61.70–72.3461.45–72.72
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7913.3125.10safe8.96–14.6310.36–16.2519.32–30.89safer8.20–15.399.62–17.0017.82–32.39
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.503.28safe0.62–2.940.41–2.601.03–5.53safer0.32–3.240.12–2.880.44–6.12
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.893.45safe0.51–2.610.76–3.021.27–5.63safer0.24–2.870.47–3.310.71–6.18
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
29%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.175.54safe0.94–3.811.61–4.722.55–8.54safer0.55–4.201.19–5.151.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.34 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 39% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.82–6.55 2.34–7.04 | 3.72 1.97–5.46 1.51–5.92 | 8.40 4.80–12.01 3.84–12.96 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.94 10.02–17.87 8.93–18.96 | 10.93 7.37–14.50 6.41–15.46 | 24.88 17.39–32.36 15.34–34.41 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 5.76–11.65 4.93–12.48 | 7.27 4.59–9.95 3.85–10.69 | 15.97 10.35–21.60 8.78–23.16 | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.89–5.66 1.35–6.20 | 3.04 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 6.82 3.28–10.35 2.25–11.39 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.09–7.52 2.52–8.10 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.37 | 10.14 5.93–14.35 4.82–15.46 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 54.70 47.91–61.49 46.24–63.16 | 45.71 38.93–52.49 37.25–54.17 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 494 426–561 408–579 | 395 329–462 311–479 | 889 755–1023 720–1058 | 79% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.02 62.99–71.05 61.70–72.34 | 67.09 62.76–71.41 61.45–72.72 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.96–14.63 8.20–15.39 | 13.31 10.36–16.25 9.62–17.00 | 25.10 19.32–30.89 17.82–32.39 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.88 | 3.28 1.03–5.53 0.44–6.12 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.24–2.87 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.71–6.18 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.19–5.15 | 5.54 2.55–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 29% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+