Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.083.06safe1.01–2.950.23–1.941.24–4.89safer0.76–3.200.00–2.160.76–5.37
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.693.809.48safe3.83–7.552.05–5.545.88–13.09safer3.34–8.041.59–6.004.92–14.04
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2211.1827.40safe12.29–20.147.62–14.7419.91–34.89safer11.20–21.236.66–15.7017.86–36.94
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.817.1918.00safe7.86–13.754.51–9.8712.38–23.62safer7.03–14.583.78–10.6110.81–25.19
Blocked shots
62%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.967.28safe2.44–6.211.31–4.613.75–10.82safer1.90–6.750.81–5.102.71–11.85
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.254.2910.54safe4.04–8.472.29–6.296.32–14.75safer3.47–9.041.75–6.825.22–15.86
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8248.42safe45.03–58.6141.63–55.20safer43.36–60.2839.96–56.88
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction486440926safe419–553374–507793–1060safer400–571356–524757–1096
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction69.1070.29safe65.07–73.1365.96–74.61safer63.78–74.4264.65–75.92
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9711.9624.93safe10.13–15.819.02–14.9119.15–30.71safer9.38–16.568.27–15.6517.64–32.22
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.793.87safe0.91–3.230.70–2.891.61–6.12safer0.61–3.530.41–3.171.02–6.71
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.773.48safe0.66–2.760.64–2.901.31–5.66safer0.40–3.030.35–3.190.75–6.22
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.726.45safe1.30–4.172.16–5.273.46–9.44safer0.91–4.561.74–5.702.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.98 1.01–2.95 0.76–3.20 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 3.06 1.24–4.89 0.76–5.37 | 58% 22% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.69 3.83–7.55 3.34–8.04 | 3.80 2.05–5.54 1.59–6.00 | 9.48 5.88–13.09 4.92–14.04 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.22 12.29–20.14 11.20–21.23 | 11.18 7.62–14.74 6.66–15.70 | 27.40 19.91–34.89 17.86–36.94 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.81 7.86–13.75 7.03–14.58 | 7.19 4.51–9.87 3.78–10.61 | 18.00 12.38–23.62 10.81–25.19 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.21 1.90–6.75 | 2.96 1.31–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 7.28 3.75–10.82 2.71–11.85 | 62% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.04–8.47 3.47–9.04 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.75–6.82 | 10.54 6.32–14.75 5.22–15.86 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 51.82 45.03–58.61 43.36–60.28 | 48.42 41.63–55.20 39.96–56.88 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 486 419–553 400–571 | 440 374–507 356–524 | 926 793–1060 757–1096 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.10 65.07–73.13 63.78–74.42 | 70.29 65.96–74.61 64.65–75.92 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.97 10.13–15.81 9.38–16.56 | 11.96 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.65 | 24.93 19.15–30.71 17.64–32.22 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.17 | 3.87 1.61–6.12 1.02–6.71 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.48 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.30–4.17 0.91–4.56 | 3.72 2.16–5.27 1.74–5.70 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.