Premiership·Regular Season - 23·
Premiership·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
28%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.212.38safe0.20–2.140.36–2.070.56–4.21safer0.00–2.390.13–2.300.08–4.69
Shots on target
52%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.423.808.23safe2.56–6.292.06–5.544.62–11.83safer2.07–6.781.59–6.013.66–12.79
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3411.6625.00safe9.41–17.268.09–15.2217.51–32.48safer8.32–18.367.13–16.1815.46–34.53
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.427.6216.03safe5.47–11.364.94–10.3010.41–21.66safer4.64–12.194.20–11.048.84–23.22
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.553.577.12safe1.66–5.431.92–5.233.59–10.66safer1.12–5.971.43–5.722.55–11.69
Corners
43%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.689.37safe2.48–6.902.68–6.685.16–13.59safer1.90–7.482.15–7.224.05–14.69
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.5048.72safe44.71–58.2941.93–55.50safer43.04–59.9640.26–57.17
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction465431896safe397–532365–498762–1030safer379–550347–515727–1065
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction65.6269.43safe61.59–69.6465.10–73.75safer60.29–70.9463.80–75.06
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1113.4326.54safe10.27–15.9510.48–16.3720.76–32.32safer9.52–16.719.74–17.1219.25–33.83
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.603.24safe0.48–2.800.51–2.700.99–5.50safer0.18–3.100.22–2.990.40–6.09
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.133.98safe0.80–2.901.00–3.251.80–6.16safer0.54–3.170.71–3.551.24–6.71
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.195.85safe1.23–4.111.63–4.742.86–8.85safer0.85–4.491.20–5.172.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.38 0.56–4.21 0.08–4.69 | 35% 28% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.29 2.07–6.78 | 3.80 2.06–5.54 1.59–6.01 | 8.23 4.62–11.83 3.66–12.79 | 52% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.41–17.26 8.32–18.36 | 11.66 8.09–15.22 7.13–16.18 | 25.00 17.51–32.48 15.46–34.53 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.47–11.36 4.64–12.19 | 7.62 4.94–10.30 4.20–11.04 | 16.03 10.41–21.66 8.84–23.22 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.66–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 3.57 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 7.12 3.59–10.66 2.55–11.69 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.90 1.90–7.48 | 4.68 2.68–6.68 2.15–7.22 | 9.37 5.16–13.59 4.05–14.69 | 43% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 51.50 44.71–58.29 43.04–59.96 | 48.72 41.93–55.50 40.26–57.17 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 465 397–532 379–550 | 431 365–498 347–515 | 896 762–1030 727–1065 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.62 61.59–69.64 60.29–70.94 | 69.43 65.10–73.75 63.80–75.06 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 13.11 10.27–15.95 9.52–16.71 | 13.43 10.48–16.37 9.74–17.12 | 26.54 20.76–32.32 19.25–33.83 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.60 0.51–2.70 0.22–2.99 | 3.24 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.13 1.00–3.25 0.71–3.55 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.24–6.71 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.11 0.85–4.49 | 3.19 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.17 | 5.85 2.86–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.