Premiership·Regular Season - 26·
Premiership·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.302.77safe0.50–2.440.45–2.160.95–4.59safer0.25–2.690.22–2.390.47–5.07
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.849.67safe2.97–6.703.09–6.586.07–13.28safer2.49–7.192.63–7.045.11–14.23
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8813.6027.48safe9.95–17.8010.04–17.1619.99–34.96safer8.86–18.899.08–18.1217.94–37.01
Shots in box
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.888.9217.80safe5.94–11.826.24–11.6012.18–23.42safer5.11–12.655.50–12.3410.61–24.99
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.497.08safe1.71–5.481.83–5.143.55–10.62safer1.17–6.021.34–5.632.51–11.65
Corners
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.575.2910.86safe3.35–7.783.29–7.296.64–15.07safer2.78–8.352.76–7.825.54–16.18
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.8650.93safe43.07–56.6644.15–57.72safer41.40–58.3242.48–59.39
Passes
51%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction450445895safe383–517379–512761–1029safer364–535361–529726–1064
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction70.3770.98safe66.35–74.4066.66–75.30safer65.05–75.7065.35–76.61
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5512.8323.39safe7.72–13.399.89–15.7817.61–29.17safer6.96–14.159.14–16.5316.10–30.68
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.643.70safe0.90–3.220.55–2.731.45–5.96safer0.60–3.530.26–3.020.86–6.55
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.943.52safe0.53–2.630.81–3.071.34–5.70safer0.27–2.900.52–3.360.79–6.26
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.316.34safe1.59–4.461.75–4.873.34–9.33safer1.20–4.851.33–5.292.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.97–6.70 2.49–7.19 | 4.84 3.09–6.58 2.63–7.04 | 9.67 6.07–13.28 5.11–14.23 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.88 9.95–17.80 8.86–18.89 | 13.60 10.04–17.16 9.08–18.12 | 27.48 19.99–34.96 17.94–37.01 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 8.92 6.24–11.60 5.50–12.34 | 17.80 12.18–23.42 10.61–24.99 | 45% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.71–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 3.49 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.08 3.55–10.62 2.51–11.65 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.35–7.78 2.78–8.35 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.76–7.82 | 10.86 6.64–15.07 5.54–16.18 | 47% 41% |
| Possession % | 49.86 43.07–56.66 41.40–58.32 | 50.93 44.15–57.72 42.48–59.39 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 450 383–517 364–535 | 445 379–512 361–529 | 895 761–1029 726–1064 | 51% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.37 66.35–74.40 65.05–75.70 | 70.98 66.66–75.30 65.35–76.61 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 10.55 7.72–13.39 6.96–14.15 | 12.83 9.89–15.78 9.14–16.53 | 23.39 17.61–29.17 16.10–30.68 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.53 | 1.64 0.55–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.70 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.03 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 3.31 1.75–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 6.34 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.