Premiership·Regular Season - 27·
Premiership·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.212.96safe0.78–2.720.35–2.061.13–4.78safer0.53–2.970.12–2.290.65–5.26
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.139.39safe3.40–7.122.39–5.885.79–13.00safer2.91–7.611.93–6.344.83–13.95
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8310.8725.70safe10.90–18.757.31–14.4418.21–33.19safer9.81–19.846.35–15.3916.16–35.24
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.177.4717.65safe7.23–13.124.79–10.1512.02–23.27safer6.40–13.954.05–10.8910.46–24.84
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.417.70safe2.41–6.181.75–5.064.16–11.24safer1.87–6.721.26–5.553.13–12.27
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.009.84safe3.63–8.052.00–6.005.63–14.05safer3.05–8.631.47–6.534.52–15.16
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.9544.48safe50.16–63.7437.69–51.26safer48.49–65.4136.02–52.94
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction566417983safe499–633351–484850–1117safer481–652333–501814–1153
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction72.3170.08safe68.28–76.3465.75–74.40safer66.99–77.6364.45–75.71
Fouls
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2711.4723.74safe9.43–15.118.53–14.4117.96–29.52safer8.68–15.867.78–15.1616.45–31.03
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.422.94safe0.36–2.690.32–2.510.69–5.19safer0.06–2.990.03–2.800.10–5.78
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.803.51safe0.66–2.760.67–2.931.34–5.69safer0.40–3.030.38–3.220.78–6.25
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.306.19safe1.45–4.321.75–4.863.19–9.18safer1.06–4.711.32–5.292.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 1.21 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.96 1.13–4.78 0.65–5.26 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.26 3.40–7.12 2.91–7.61 | 4.13 2.39–5.88 1.93–6.34 | 9.39 5.79–13.00 4.83–13.95 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.83 10.90–18.75 9.81–19.84 | 10.87 7.31–14.44 6.35–15.39 | 25.70 18.21–33.19 16.16–35.24 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.17 7.23–13.12 6.40–13.95 | 7.47 4.79–10.15 4.05–10.89 | 17.65 12.02–23.27 10.46–24.84 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.41–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 3.41 1.75–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 7.70 4.16–11.24 3.13–12.27 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.63–8.05 3.05–8.63 | 4.00 2.00–6.00 1.47–6.53 | 9.84 5.63–14.05 4.52–15.16 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 56.95 50.16–63.74 48.49–65.41 | 44.48 37.69–51.26 36.02–52.94 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 566 499–633 481–652 | 417 351–484 333–501 | 983 850–1117 814–1153 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.31 68.28–76.34 66.99–77.63 | 70.08 65.75–74.40 64.45–75.71 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.27 9.43–15.11 8.68–15.86 | 11.47 8.53–14.41 7.78–15.16 | 23.74 17.96–29.52 16.45–31.03 | 52% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.69 0.06–2.99 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.03–2.80 | 2.94 0.69–5.19 0.10–5.78 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 1.80 0.67–2.93 0.38–3.22 | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.29 | 6.19 3.19–9.18 2.38–9.99 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.