Premiership·Regular Season - 27·
Premiership·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.282.62safe0.37–2.300.43–2.140.80–4.44safer0.12–2.560.20–2.370.32–4.92
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.348.43safe2.23–5.962.60–6.084.83–12.04safer1.74–6.452.13–6.553.87–12.99
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8112.9725.78safe8.89–16.749.41–16.5318.29–33.27safer7.80–17.838.45–17.4916.24–35.32
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.488.1616.64safe5.53–11.425.48–10.8411.01–22.26safer4.71–12.254.74–11.589.45–23.83
Blocked shots
36%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.514.007.51safe1.63–5.392.35–5.653.97–11.04safer1.08–5.941.85–6.142.94–12.08
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.649.95safe3.10–7.532.64–6.645.73–14.16safer2.52–8.102.10–7.174.63–15.27
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.5655.15safe38.77–52.3648.37–61.94safer37.10–54.0246.70–63.61
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction419485904safe352–486419–551771–1038safer334–505401–569735–1074
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction64.6272.50safe60.59–68.6568.18–76.82safer59.30–69.9466.87–78.13
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9412.6424.58safe9.10–14.779.70–15.5918.80–30.36safer8.34–15.538.95–16.3417.29–31.87
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.743.32safe0.42–2.750.64–2.831.07–5.58safer0.12–3.050.36–3.120.48–6.16
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.783.14safe0.31–2.410.65–2.910.96–5.32safer0.05–2.680.36–3.200.40–5.87
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.785.78safe1.56–4.431.22–4.342.79–8.77safer1.17–4.820.80–4.761.97–9.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.56 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.09 2.23–5.96 1.74–6.45 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 8.43 4.83–12.04 3.87–12.99 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.81 8.89–16.74 7.80–17.83 | 12.97 9.41–16.53 8.45–17.49 | 25.78 18.29–33.27 16.24–35.32 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.53–11.42 4.71–12.25 | 8.16 5.48–10.84 4.74–11.58 | 16.64 11.01–22.26 9.45–23.83 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.94 | 4.00 2.35–5.65 1.85–6.14 | 7.51 3.97–11.04 2.94–12.08 | 36% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.53 2.52–8.10 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.10–7.17 | 9.95 5.73–14.16 4.63–15.27 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 45.56 38.77–52.36 37.10–54.02 | 55.15 48.37–61.94 46.70–63.61 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 419 352–486 334–505 | 485 419–551 401–569 | 904 771–1038 735–1074 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.62 60.59–68.65 59.30–69.94 | 72.50 68.18–76.82 66.87–78.13 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 11.94 9.10–14.77 8.34–15.53 | 12.64 9.70–15.59 8.95–16.34 | 24.58 18.80–30.36 17.29–31.87 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.42–2.75 0.12–3.05 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.36–3.12 | 3.32 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.16 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.31–2.41 0.05–2.68 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.14 0.96–5.32 0.40–5.87 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 2.78 1.22–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 5.78 2.79–8.77 1.97–9.58 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.