Premiership·Regular Season - 28·
Premiership·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.623.12safe0.53–2.470.77–2.481.30–4.94safer0.28–2.720.54–2.710.82–5.42
Shots on target
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.969.68safe2.85–6.583.22–6.706.07–13.28safer2.36–7.072.75–7.175.12–14.24
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4013.6427.03safe9.47–17.3210.07–17.2019.55–34.52safer8.38–18.419.11–18.1617.49–36.57
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.949.4618.40safe6.00–11.896.78–12.1412.78–24.03safer5.17–12.716.04–12.8811.21–25.59
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.228.29safe2.18–5.942.57–5.884.75–11.82safer1.64–6.492.08–6.373.72–12.86
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.095.2110.30safe2.88–7.303.21–7.216.08–14.51safer2.30–7.882.67–7.744.97–15.62
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.0344.59safe48.23–61.8237.81–51.38safer46.57–63.4936.14–53.05
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction535413948safe468–603346–479815–1082safer450–621329–497779–1118
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction72.2873.00safe68.25–76.3168.68–77.32safer66.96–77.6067.37–78.63
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9911.2423.23safe9.15–14.838.30–14.1917.45–29.01safer8.39–15.587.55–14.9415.94–30.52
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.542.95safe0.24–2.570.45–2.630.69–5.20safer0.00–2.870.16–2.920.10–5.79
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.713.40safe0.64–2.740.58–2.841.22–5.58safer0.37–3.000.29–3.130.66–6.13
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.333.156.48safe1.89–4.761.59–4.713.48–9.47safer1.50–5.151.17–5.132.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.62 0.77–2.48 0.54–2.71 | 3.12 1.30–4.94 0.82–5.42 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.85–6.58 2.36–7.07 | 4.96 3.22–6.70 2.75–7.17 | 9.68 6.07–13.28 5.12–14.24 | 40% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.47–17.32 8.38–18.41 | 13.64 10.07–17.20 9.11–18.16 | 27.03 19.55–34.52 17.49–36.57 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.94 6.00–11.89 5.17–12.71 | 9.46 6.78–12.14 6.04–12.88 | 18.40 12.78–24.03 11.21–25.59 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.18–5.94 1.64–6.49 | 4.22 2.57–5.88 2.08–6.37 | 8.29 4.75–11.82 3.72–12.86 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.30 2.30–7.88 | 5.21 3.21–7.21 2.67–7.74 | 10.30 6.08–14.51 4.97–15.62 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 55.03 48.23–61.82 46.57–63.49 | 44.59 37.81–51.38 36.14–53.05 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 535 468–603 450–621 | 413 346–479 329–497 | 948 815–1082 779–1118 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.28 68.25–76.31 66.96–77.60 | 73.00 68.68–77.32 67.37–78.63 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.15–14.83 8.39–15.58 | 11.24 8.30–14.19 7.55–14.94 | 23.23 17.45–29.01 15.94–30.52 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.24–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 2.95 0.69–5.20 0.10–5.79 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 3.40 1.22–5.58 0.66–6.13 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.33 1.89–4.76 1.50–5.15 | 3.15 1.59–4.71 1.17–5.13 | 6.48 3.48–9.47 2.67–10.28 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.