Premiership·Regular Season - 29·
Premiership·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.102.49safe0.42–2.360.25–1.950.66–4.31safer0.17–2.610.02–2.180.18–4.79
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.263.818.07safe2.40–6.132.07–5.554.47–11.68safer1.91–6.621.60–6.023.51–12.63
Total shots
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0911.6523.74safe8.17–16.028.09–15.2116.25–31.23safer7.07–17.117.13–16.1714.20–33.28
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.286.7014.98safe5.34–11.224.02–9.389.35–20.60safer4.51–12.053.28–10.127.79–22.17
Blocked shots
52%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.652.996.63safe1.76–5.531.33–4.643.10–10.17safer1.22–6.070.84–5.132.06–11.20
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.379.81safe3.22–7.652.37–6.375.59–14.02safer2.65–8.221.84–6.914.49–15.13
Possession %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction46.5553.67safe39.76–53.3446.88–60.45safer38.09–55.0145.21–62.12
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction431486917safe363–498420–553783–1051safer345–516402–570748–1086
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction65.9671.12safe61.93–69.9966.80–75.44safer60.64–71.2865.49–76.75
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7911.8824.67safe9.95–15.638.93–14.8218.89–30.45safer9.20–16.388.18–15.5717.38–31.95
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.313.06safe0.60–2.920.21–2.400.81–5.32safer0.30–3.220.00–2.690.22–5.91
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.873.49safe0.57–2.660.74–3.001.31–5.66safer0.30–2.930.45–3.290.75–6.22
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.835.46safe1.20–4.071.27–4.382.47–8.45safer0.81–4.460.85–4.811.66–9.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.10 0.25–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.49 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.13 1.91–6.62 | 3.81 2.07–5.55 1.60–6.02 | 8.07 4.47–11.68 3.51–12.63 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.09 8.17–16.02 7.07–17.11 | 11.65 8.09–15.21 7.13–16.17 | 23.74 16.25–31.23 14.20–33.28 | 49% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.28 5.34–11.22 4.51–12.05 | 6.70 4.02–9.38 3.28–10.12 | 14.98 9.35–20.60 7.79–22.17 | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 1.76–5.53 1.22–6.07 | 2.99 1.33–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 6.63 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.20 | 52% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.65 2.65–8.22 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.91 | 9.81 5.59–14.02 4.49–15.13 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 46.55 39.76–53.34 38.09–55.01 | 53.67 46.88–60.45 45.21–62.12 | — | 32% 64% |
| Passes | 431 363–498 345–516 | 486 420–553 402–570 | 917 783–1051 748–1086 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.96 61.93–69.99 60.64–71.28 | 71.12 66.80–75.44 65.49–76.75 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.95–15.63 9.20–16.38 | 11.88 8.93–14.82 8.18–15.57 | 24.67 18.89–30.45 17.38–31.95 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.31 0.21–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 3.06 0.81–5.32 0.22–5.91 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.49 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 2.83 1.27–4.38 0.85–4.81 | 5.46 2.47–8.45 1.66–9.27 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.