Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.332.72safe0.43–2.360.48–2.180.90–4.55safer0.17–2.610.25–2.410.42–5.03
Shots on target
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.609.13safe2.67–6.402.86–6.345.53–12.74safer2.18–6.892.39–6.814.57–13.69
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0912.6225.71safe9.16–17.019.06–16.1918.23–33.20safer8.07–18.118.10–17.1516.17–35.25
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.847.8716.70safe5.89–11.785.19–10.5511.08–22.33safer5.06–12.614.45–11.299.51–23.89
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.662.986.64safe1.78–5.541.33–4.633.10–10.17safer1.23–6.090.83–5.122.07–11.21
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.9010.45safe3.34–7.772.90–6.906.24–14.67safer2.77–8.342.36–7.435.13–15.77
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction45.9753.49safe39.18–52.7646.71–60.28safer37.51–54.4345.04–61.95
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction421493914safe354–488426–559780–1047safer336–506409–577744–1083
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction66.8172.84safe62.78–70.8468.51–77.16safer61.49–72.1367.21–78.47
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6111.6224.23safe9.77–15.458.68–14.5718.45–30.02safer9.02–16.217.93–15.3216.95–31.52
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.313.29safe0.83–3.150.22–2.401.04–5.55safer0.52–3.450.00–2.690.45–6.14
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.983.74safe0.71–2.800.85–3.111.56–5.92safer0.44–3.070.56–3.401.00–6.47
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.985.90safe1.49–4.361.42–4.532.91–8.90safer1.10–4.751.00–4.962.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.43–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.33 0.48–2.18 0.25–2.41 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 39% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.40 2.18–6.89 | 4.60 2.86–6.34 2.39–6.81 | 9.13 5.53–12.74 4.57–13.69 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.09 9.16–17.01 8.07–18.11 | 12.62 9.06–16.19 8.10–17.15 | 25.71 18.23–33.20 16.17–35.25 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.89–11.78 5.06–12.61 | 7.87 5.19–10.55 4.45–11.29 | 16.70 11.08–22.33 9.51–23.89 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.54 1.23–6.09 | 2.98 1.33–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 6.64 3.10–10.17 2.07–11.21 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.34–7.77 2.77–8.34 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.36–7.43 | 10.45 6.24–14.67 5.13–15.77 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 45.97 39.18–52.76 37.51–54.43 | 53.49 46.71–60.28 45.04–61.95 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 421 354–488 336–506 | 493 426–559 409–577 | 914 780–1047 744–1083 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.81 62.78–70.84 61.49–72.13 | 72.84 68.51–77.16 67.21–78.47 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.61 9.77–15.45 9.02–16.21 | 11.62 8.68–14.57 7.93–15.32 | 24.23 18.45–30.02 16.95–31.52 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.52–3.45 | 1.31 0.22–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 3.29 1.04–5.55 0.45–6.14 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 2.98 1.42–4.53 1.00–4.96 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.