Premiership·Regular Season - 33·
Premiership·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
20%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.083.20safe1.15–3.090.23–1.941.38–5.02safer0.90–3.340.00–2.160.90–5.50
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.084.3410.42safe4.22–7.942.60–6.086.82–14.03safer3.73–8.432.13–6.555.86–14.98
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction17.8611.6629.52safe13.94–21.798.10–15.2222.03–37.01safer12.84–22.887.14–16.1819.98–39.06
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction11.607.3318.93safe8.66–14.544.65–10.0113.31–24.55safer7.83–15.373.91–10.7511.74–26.12
Blocked shots
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.253.368.61safe3.37–7.131.71–5.025.08–12.15safer2.82–7.671.22–5.514.04–13.18
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.943.7510.69safe4.73–9.151.75–5.756.48–14.91safer4.15–9.731.22–6.295.37–16.01
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.9641.52safe52.17–65.7534.73–48.30safer50.50–67.4233.06–49.98
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction575409984safe508–642342–475850–1117safer490–660325–493814–1153
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction76.1071.88safe72.07–80.1367.55–76.20safer70.78–81.4366.24–77.51
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5410.3121.84safe8.70–14.377.36–13.2516.06–27.62safer7.94–15.136.61–14.0014.55–29.13
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.382.98safe0.44–2.760.29–2.470.73–5.23safer0.14–3.060.00–2.760.14–5.82
Yellow cards
31%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.723.11safe0.34–2.440.59–2.850.93–5.29safer0.07–2.710.30–3.140.37–5.84
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
25%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.976.73safe1.33–4.202.41–5.523.74–9.73safer0.94–4.591.99–5.952.93–10.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.12 1.15–3.09 0.90–3.34 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.90–5.50 | 61% 20% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.08 4.22–7.94 3.73–8.43 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 10.42 6.82–14.03 5.86–14.98 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 17.86 13.94–21.79 12.84–22.88 | 11.66 8.10–15.22 7.14–16.18 | 29.52 22.03–37.01 19.98–39.06 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 11.60 8.66–14.54 7.83–15.37 | 7.33 4.65–10.01 3.91–10.75 | 18.93 13.31–24.55 11.74–26.12 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 5.25 3.37–7.13 2.82–7.67 | 3.36 1.71–5.02 1.22–5.51 | 8.61 5.08–12.15 4.04–13.18 | 68% 21% |
| Corners | 6.94 4.73–9.15 4.15–9.73 | 3.75 1.75–5.75 1.22–6.29 | 10.69 6.48–14.91 5.37–16.01 | 80% |
| Possession % | 58.96 52.17–65.75 50.50–67.42 | 41.52 34.73–48.30 33.06–49.98 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 575 508–642 490–660 | 409 342–475 325–493 | 984 850–1117 814–1153 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.10 72.07–80.13 70.78–81.43 | 71.88 67.55–76.20 66.24–77.51 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.70–14.37 7.94–15.13 | 10.31 7.36–13.25 6.61–14.00 | 21.84 16.06–27.62 14.55–29.13 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.38 0.29–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 2.98 0.73–5.23 0.14–5.82 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.34–2.44 0.07–2.71 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.11 0.93–5.29 0.37–5.84 | 31% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.33–4.20 0.94–4.59 | 3.97 2.41–5.52 1.99–5.95 | 6.73 3.74–9.73 2.93–10.54 | 25% 14% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.