Premier League·Regular Season - 4·
Premier League·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andy Madley · England
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.122.74safe0.66–2.590.26–1.980.92–4.57safer0.40–2.850.02–2.230.42–5.07actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.548.21safe2.82–6.531.83–5.254.65–11.78safer2.32–7.031.36–5.723.68–12.74actual5.007.0012.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6910.8725.56safe10.99–18.397.49–14.2518.48–32.65safer9.96–19.436.56–15.1816.52–34.61actual7.0022.0029.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.037.9617.00safe6.52–11.555.66–10.2612.18–21.81safer5.65–12.424.86–11.0610.52–23.48actual6.0014.0020.00
Blocked shots
63%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.152.796.94safe2.57–5.741.38–4.203.94–9.94safer2.03–6.270.89–4.692.92–10.96actual1.003.004.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.4210.17safe3.54–7.952.44–6.405.98–14.35safer2.95–8.551.90–6.944.85–15.48actual6.001.007.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.1844.75safe48.86–61.5038.43–51.07safer47.27–63.0936.83–52.66actual53.0047.00
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction466364830safe400–531300–429700–960safer383–549282–447665–995actual421360781
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction85.0578.42safe80.83–89.2673.91–82.93safer79.53–90.5772.58–84.26
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9912.7523.74safe8.13–13.849.80–15.6917.93–29.54safer7.24–14.738.89–16.6116.13–31.34actual11.0016.0027.00
Offsides
17%
17%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.262.593.85safe0.05–2.471.43–3.751.47–6.22safer0.00–2.811.09–4.080.80–6.90actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.243.80safe0.50–2.611.12–3.361.62–5.97safer0.22–2.880.83–3.651.06–6.53actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.955.50safe1.14–3.971.40–4.512.54–8.47safer0.75–4.360.97–4.941.72–9.29actual5.005.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.66–2.59 0.40–2.85 | 1.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 2.00 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.42–5.07 | 3.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.82–6.53 2.32–7.03 | 5.00 | 3.54 1.83–5.25 1.36–5.72 | 7.00 | 8.21 4.65–11.78 3.68–12.74 | 12.00 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.69 10.99–18.39 9.96–19.43 | 7.00 | 10.87 7.49–14.25 6.56–15.18 | 22.00 | 25.56 18.48–32.65 16.52–34.61 | 29.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.03 6.52–11.55 5.65–12.42 | 6.00 | 7.96 5.66–10.26 4.86–11.06 | 14.00 | 17.00 12.18–21.81 10.52–23.48 | 20.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.57–5.74 2.03–6.27 | 1.00 | 2.79 1.38–4.20 0.89–4.69 | 3.00 | 6.94 3.94–9.94 2.92–10.96 | 4.00 | 63% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.75 3.54–7.95 2.95–8.55 | 6.00 | 4.42 2.44–6.40 1.90–6.94 | 1.00 | 10.17 5.98–14.35 4.85–15.48 | 7.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 55.18 48.86–61.50 47.27–63.09 | 53.00 | 44.75 38.43–51.07 36.83–52.66 | 47.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 466 400–531 383–549 | 421 | 364 300–429 282–447 | 360 | 830 700–960 665–995 | 781 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.05 80.83–89.26 79.53–90.57 | — | 78.42 73.91–82.93 72.58–84.26 | — | — | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.13–13.84 7.24–14.73 | 11.00 | 12.75 9.80–15.69 8.89–16.61 | 16.00 | 23.74 17.93–29.54 16.13–31.34 | 27.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.26 0.05–2.47 0.00–2.81 | 0.00 | 2.59 1.43–3.75 1.09–4.08 | 4.00 | 3.85 1.47–6.22 0.80–6.90 | 4.00 | 17% 17% 66% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.22–2.88 | 2.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 5.00 | 3.80 1.62–5.97 1.06–6.53 | 7.00 | 26% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.14–3.97 0.75–4.36 | 5.00 | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.94 | 5.00 | 5.50 2.54–8.47 1.72–9.29 | 10.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+