Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.272.53safe0.30–2.230.41–2.120.71–4.35safer0.05–2.490.18–2.350.23–4.83
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.178.74safe2.70–6.432.43–5.925.13–12.34safer2.21–6.921.97–6.384.18–13.30
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8911.9625.85safe9.96–17.818.40–15.5318.36–33.34safer8.87–18.907.44–16.4816.31–35.39
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.067.9116.97safe6.12–12.005.23–10.5911.35–22.60safer5.29–12.834.50–11.339.78–24.16
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.577.54safe2.09–5.851.91–5.224.00–11.07safer1.54–6.401.42–5.712.97–12.11
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.609.72safe2.91–7.332.60–6.605.51–13.94safer2.33–7.912.07–7.144.40–15.04
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction45.8554.46safe39.06–52.6447.68–61.25safer37.39–54.3146.01–62.92
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction393464857safe326–460397–530723–991safer308–478380–548688–1026
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction66.1972.91safe62.16–70.2268.58–77.23safer60.87–71.5167.28–78.54
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3511.1124.46safe10.51–16.198.16–14.0518.67–30.24safer9.76–16.947.41–14.8017.17–31.74
Offsides
61%
17%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.871.754.62safe1.71–4.030.66–2.842.36–6.87safer1.40–4.330.37–3.131.77–7.46
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.044.01safe0.92–3.020.91–3.171.83–6.19safer0.66–3.290.62–3.461.28–6.75
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.305.92safe1.18–4.051.74–4.852.92–8.91safer0.79–4.441.32–5.282.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.05–2.49 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 37% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 4.17 2.43–5.92 1.97–6.38 | 8.74 5.13–12.34 4.18–13.30 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.89 9.96–17.81 8.87–18.90 | 11.96 8.40–15.53 7.44–16.48 | 25.85 18.36–33.34 16.31–35.39 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.06 6.12–12.00 5.29–12.83 | 7.91 5.23–10.59 4.50–11.33 | 16.97 11.35–22.60 9.78–24.16 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.85 1.54–6.40 | 3.57 1.91–5.22 1.42–5.71 | 7.54 4.00–11.07 2.97–12.11 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.91–7.33 2.33–7.91 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.14 | 9.72 5.51–13.94 4.40–15.04 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 45.85 39.06–52.64 37.39–54.31 | 54.46 47.68–61.25 46.01–62.92 | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 393 326–460 308–478 | 464 397–530 380–548 | 857 723–991 688–1026 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.19 62.16–70.22 60.87–71.51 | 72.91 68.58–77.23 67.28–78.54 | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 13.35 10.51–16.19 9.76–16.94 | 11.11 8.16–14.05 7.41–14.80 | 24.46 18.67–30.24 17.17–31.74 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 2.87 1.71–4.03 1.40–4.33 | 1.75 0.66–2.84 0.37–3.13 | 4.62 2.36–6.87 1.77–7.46 | 61% 17% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 4.01 1.83–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.30 1.74–4.85 1.32–5.28 | 5.92 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.