Premier League·Regular Season - 4·
Premier League·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jarred Gillett · Australia
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.292.72safe0.47–2.390.43–2.150.90–4.55safer0.21–2.650.19–2.400.40–5.05actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.778.54safe2.92–6.632.06–5.484.98–12.10safer2.42–7.131.59–5.944.01–13.07actual10.002.0012.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5610.7525.31safe10.85–18.267.37–14.1318.22–32.39safer9.82–19.296.44–15.0616.26–34.35actual20.008.0028.00
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.667.8316.49safe6.14–11.175.53–10.1411.68–21.31safer5.28–12.044.74–10.9310.01–22.97actual10.006.0016.00
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.207.40safe2.61–5.781.79–4.624.40–10.40safer2.08–6.321.30–5.103.38–11.42actual2.001.003.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.904.4810.37safe3.69–8.102.50–6.456.19–14.56safer3.10–8.701.96–6.995.06–15.69actual2.001.003.00
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.5647.88safe46.25–58.8841.56–54.20safer44.65–60.4839.97–55.80actual56.0044.00
Passes
61%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction438405843safe373–504340–469713–973safer355–521322–487678–1008actual497375872
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction80.1778.76safe75.95–84.3874.25–83.27safer74.65–85.6872.92–84.60
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3612.2822.65safe7.51–13.229.34–15.2316.85–28.45safer6.62–14.118.42–16.1515.04–30.25actual10.0013.0023.00
Offsides
35%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.633.09safe0.26–2.680.46–2.790.72–5.46safer0.00–3.020.13–3.120.04–6.14actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.444.45safe0.96–3.071.31–3.562.28–6.63safer0.69–3.351.02–3.851.71–7.19actual5.001.006.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.135.79safe1.24–4.071.58–4.682.82–8.76safer0.85–4.461.14–5.122.00–9.58actual0.008.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 2.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.19–2.40 | 2.00 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.40–5.05 | 4.00 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.92–6.63 2.42–7.13 | 10.00 | 3.77 2.06–5.48 1.59–5.94 | 2.00 | 8.54 4.98–12.10 4.01–13.07 | 12.00 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.56 10.85–18.26 9.82–19.29 | 20.00 | 10.75 7.37–14.13 6.44–15.06 | 8.00 | 25.31 18.22–32.39 16.26–34.35 | 28.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.66 6.14–11.17 5.28–12.04 | 10.00 | 7.83 5.53–10.14 4.74–10.93 | 6.00 | 16.49 11.68–21.31 10.01–22.97 | 16.00 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.61–5.78 2.08–6.32 | 2.00 | 3.20 1.79–4.62 1.30–5.10 | 1.00 | 7.40 4.40–10.40 3.38–11.42 | 3.00 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.90 3.69–8.10 3.10–8.70 | 2.00 | 4.48 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 1.00 | 10.37 6.19–14.56 5.06–15.69 | 3.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 52.56 46.25–58.88 44.65–60.48 | 56.00 | 47.88 41.56–54.20 39.97–55.80 | 44.00 | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 438 373–504 355–521 | 497 | 405 340–469 322–487 | 375 | 843 713–973 678–1008 | 872 | 61% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.17 75.95–84.38 74.65–85.68 | — | 78.76 74.25–83.27 72.92–84.60 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.36 7.51–13.22 6.62–14.11 | 10.00 | 12.28 9.34–15.23 8.42–16.15 | 13.00 | 22.65 16.85–28.45 15.04–30.25 | 23.00 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.26–2.68 0.00–3.02 | 3.00 | 1.63 0.46–2.79 0.13–3.12 | 1.00 | 3.09 0.72–5.46 0.04–6.14 | 4.00 | 35% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.96–3.07 0.69–3.35 | 5.00 | 2.44 1.31–3.56 1.02–3.85 | 1.00 | 4.45 2.28–6.63 1.71–7.19 | 6.00 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.24–4.07 0.85–4.46 | 0.00 | 3.13 1.58–4.68 1.14–5.12 | 8.00 | 5.79 2.82–8.76 2.00–9.58 | 8.00 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.