Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.132.59safe0.49–2.430.27–1.980.76–4.41safer0.24–2.680.05–2.210.28–4.89
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.118.31safe2.33–6.052.37–5.864.70–11.91safer1.84–6.541.91–6.323.75–12.87
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2112.2325.44safe9.28–17.138.67–15.7917.95–32.93safer8.19–18.227.71–16.7515.90–34.98
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.537.8716.41safe5.59–11.485.19–10.5510.79–22.03safer4.76–12.314.46–11.299.22–23.60
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.557.19safe1.76–5.521.90–5.213.66–10.73safer1.21–6.061.41–5.702.62–11.76
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.8710.22safe3.14–7.572.87–6.876.01–14.44safer2.57–8.142.33–7.404.90–15.54
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.8649.29safe44.07–57.6542.51–56.08safer42.40–59.3240.84–57.75
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction433418851safe366–500351–484717–985safer348–519334–502682–1020
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction66.0270.73safe61.99–70.0566.41–75.05safer60.70–71.3465.10–76.36
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4311.7224.15safe9.59–15.278.78–14.6718.37–29.93safer8.84–16.028.03–15.4116.86–31.44
Offsides
29%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.163.76safe0.44–2.761.07–3.251.51–6.02safer0.14–3.060.78–3.540.92–6.60
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.013.83safe0.77–2.870.88–3.141.65–6.00safer0.50–3.130.59–3.431.09–6.56
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.825.69safe1.43–4.301.27–4.382.70–8.68safer1.04–4.690.84–4.801.88–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.05–2.21 | 2.59 0.76–4.41 0.28–4.89 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.33–6.05 1.84–6.54 | 4.11 2.37–5.86 1.91–6.32 | 8.31 4.70–11.91 3.75–12.87 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.21 9.28–17.13 8.19–18.22 | 12.23 8.67–15.79 7.71–16.75 | 25.44 17.95–32.93 15.90–34.98 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.53 5.59–11.48 4.76–12.31 | 7.87 5.19–10.55 4.46–11.29 | 16.41 10.79–22.03 9.22–23.60 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 3.55 1.90–5.21 1.41–5.70 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.76 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.57 2.57–8.14 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.33–7.40 | 10.22 6.01–14.44 4.90–15.54 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.86 44.07–57.65 42.40–59.32 | 49.29 42.51–56.08 40.84–57.75 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 433 366–500 348–519 | 418 351–484 334–502 | 851 717–985 682–1020 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.02 61.99–70.05 60.70–71.34 | 70.73 66.41–75.05 65.10–76.36 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 12.43 9.59–15.27 8.84–16.02 | 11.72 8.78–14.67 8.03–15.41 | 24.15 18.37–29.93 16.86–31.44 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 2.16 1.07–3.25 0.78–3.54 | 3.76 1.51–6.02 0.92–6.60 | 29% 21% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.88–9.49 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.