Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Farai Hallam · England
Goals
58%
23%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.760.882.64safe0.80–2.730.02–1.740.82–4.47safer0.54–2.990.00–1.990.32–4.97actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.413.178.58safe3.56–7.271.46–4.885.02–12.15safer3.06–7.771.00–5.354.05–13.11actual7.005.0012.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction16.349.0725.41safe12.64–20.055.69–12.4518.33–32.49safer11.61–21.084.76–13.3816.37–34.45actual12.0014.0026.00
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction11.045.9216.96safe8.52–13.553.62–8.2212.14–21.77safer7.66–14.422.82–9.0210.48–23.44actual6.009.0015.00
Blocked shots
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.852.697.54safe3.27–6.431.27–4.104.54–10.53safer2.73–6.970.78–4.593.52–11.55actual1.004.005.00
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.353.7410.09safe4.14–8.551.76–5.725.91–14.27safer3.55–9.151.23–6.264.78–15.41actual11.004.0015.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction65.5234.72safe59.20–71.8428.40–41.04safer57.61–73.4426.81–42.64actual68.0032.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction573313885safe507–638248–377756–1015safer490–656230–395720–1051actual577265842
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction88.1573.27safe83.93–92.3668.77–77.78safer82.63–93.6667.44–79.11
Fouls
15%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction7.5511.5619.12safe4.70–10.418.62–14.5113.31–24.92safer3.81–11.307.70–15.4311.51–26.72actual7.0012.0019.00
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.443.06safe0.41–2.820.28–2.600.68–5.43safer0.06–3.170.00–2.940.01–6.10actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.333.80safe0.41–2.521.21–3.451.62–5.97safer0.14–2.790.92–3.741.06–6.54actual1.005.006.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.405.77safe0.96–3.791.84–4.952.80–8.74safer0.57–4.181.41–5.381.98–9.56actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.80–2.73 0.54–2.99 | 2.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.99 | 2.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.32–4.97 | 4.00 | 58% 23% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.41 3.56–7.27 3.06–7.77 | 7.00 | 3.17 1.46–4.88 1.00–5.35 | 5.00 | 8.58 5.02–12.15 4.05–13.11 | 12.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 16.34 12.64–20.05 11.61–21.08 | 12.00 | 9.07 5.69–12.45 4.76–13.38 | 14.00 | 25.41 18.33–32.49 16.37–34.45 | 26.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.04 8.52–13.55 7.66–14.42 | 6.00 | 5.92 3.62–8.22 2.82–9.02 | 9.00 | 16.96 12.14–21.77 10.48–23.44 | 15.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 3.27–6.43 2.73–6.97 | 1.00 | 2.69 1.27–4.10 0.78–4.59 | 4.00 | 7.54 4.54–10.53 3.52–11.55 | 5.00 | 73% 16% |
| Corners | 6.35 4.14–8.55 3.55–9.15 | 11.00 | 3.74 1.76–5.72 1.23–6.26 | 4.00 | 10.09 5.91–14.27 4.78–15.41 | 15.00 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 65.52 59.20–71.84 57.61–73.44 | 68.00 | 34.72 28.40–41.04 26.81–42.64 | 32.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 573 507–638 490–656 | 577 | 313 248–377 230–395 | 265 | 885 756–1015 720–1051 | 842 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.15 83.93–92.36 82.63–93.66 | — | 73.27 68.77–77.78 67.44–79.11 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 7.55 4.70–10.41 3.81–11.30 | 7.00 | 11.56 8.62–14.51 7.70–15.43 | 12.00 | 19.12 13.31–24.92 11.51–26.72 | 19.00 | 15% 79% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.41–2.82 0.06–3.17 | 1.00 | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.94 | 1.00 | 3.06 0.68–5.43 0.01–6.10 | 2.00 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.41–2.52 0.14–2.79 | 1.00 | 2.33 1.21–3.45 0.92–3.74 | 5.00 | 3.80 1.62–5.97 1.06–6.54 | 6.00 | 24% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.96–3.79 0.57–4.18 | 3.00 | 3.40 1.84–4.95 1.41–5.38 | 5.00 | 5.77 2.80–8.74 1.98–9.56 | 8.00 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+