Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tony Harrington · England
Goals
28%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.622.80safe0.22–2.140.76–2.480.98–4.62safer0.00–2.400.52–2.730.47–5.13actual0.005.005.00
Shots on target
34%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.894.588.47safe2.03–5.742.87–6.294.90–12.03safer1.53–6.242.40–6.763.94–13.00actual6.007.0013.00
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1913.0224.21safe7.49–14.899.64–16.4017.13–31.29safer6.46–15.938.71–17.3315.17–33.26actual14.0022.0036.00
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.589.8917.47safe5.06–10.097.59–12.2012.65–22.29safer4.20–10.966.80–12.9910.99–23.95actual12.0014.0026.00
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.887.05safe1.59–4.762.47–5.294.06–10.05safer1.06–5.291.98–5.783.03–11.07actual2.005.007.00
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.175.319.47safe1.96–6.373.33–7.285.29–13.66safer1.37–6.972.79–7.824.16–14.79actual5.003.008.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction37.7663.05safe31.44–44.0756.73–69.36safer29.84–45.6755.13–70.96actual31.0069.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction339565904safe274–404501–630774–1034safer256–422483–647739–1069actual249584833
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction75.6685.63safe71.44–79.8781.13–90.14safer70.14–81.1779.80–91.47
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3611.1222.48safe8.51–14.228.17–14.0616.68–28.28safer7.62–15.117.25–14.9814.87–30.09actual9.0015.0024.00
Offsides
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.494.52safe0.82–3.241.33–3.662.15–6.90safer0.48–3.591.00–3.991.48–7.57actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.143.98safe0.78–2.891.02–3.261.80–6.15safer0.51–3.170.73–3.551.24–6.71actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.465.73safe1.86–4.680.90–4.012.76–8.69safer1.47–5.070.47–4.441.94–9.51actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 0.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.52–2.73 | 5.00 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.47–5.13 | 5.00 | 28% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.89 2.03–5.74 1.53–6.24 | 6.00 | 4.58 2.87–6.29 2.40–6.76 | 7.00 | 8.47 4.90–12.03 3.94–13.00 | 13.00 | 34% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.19 7.49–14.89 6.46–15.93 | 14.00 | 13.02 9.64–16.40 8.71–17.33 | 22.00 | 24.21 17.13–31.29 15.17–33.26 | 36.00 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 5.06–10.09 4.20–10.96 | 12.00 | 9.89 7.59–12.20 6.80–12.99 | 14.00 | 17.47 12.65–22.29 10.99–23.95 | 26.00 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.59–4.76 1.06–5.29 | 2.00 | 3.88 2.47–5.29 1.98–5.78 | 5.00 | 7.05 4.06–10.05 3.03–11.07 | 7.00 | 32% 15% 53% |
| Corners | 4.17 1.96–6.37 1.37–6.97 | 5.00 | 5.31 3.33–7.28 2.79–7.82 | 3.00 | 9.47 5.29–13.66 4.16–14.79 | 8.00 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 37.76 31.44–44.07 29.84–45.67 | 31.00 | 63.05 56.73–69.36 55.13–70.96 | 69.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 339 274–404 256–422 | 249 | 565 501–630 483–647 | 584 | 904 774–1034 739–1069 | 833 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.66 71.44–79.87 70.14–81.17 | — | 85.63 81.13–90.14 79.80–91.47 | — | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 11.36 8.51–14.22 7.62–15.11 | 9.00 | 11.12 8.17–14.06 7.25–14.98 | 15.00 | 22.48 16.68–28.28 14.87–30.09 | 24.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.24 0.48–3.59 | 2.00 | 2.49 1.33–3.66 1.00–3.99 | 2.00 | 4.52 2.15–6.90 1.48–7.57 | 4.00 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | 0.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 0.00 | 3.98 1.80–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 0.00 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 1.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 1.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.86–4.68 1.47–5.07 | 2.00 | 2.46 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.44 | 6.00 | 5.73 2.76–8.69 1.94–9.51 | 8.00 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.