Premier League·Regular Season - 4·
Premier League·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Chris Kavanagh · England
Goals
45%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.172.68safe0.55–2.480.31–2.030.86–4.51safer0.29–2.740.07–2.280.36–5.01actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.028.61safe2.73–6.442.32–5.735.05–12.17safer2.23–6.941.85–6.204.08–13.14actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9413.0526.99safe10.23–17.649.68–16.4319.91–34.07safer9.20–18.678.75–17.3617.95–36.03actual11.0012.0023.00
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction11.058.0919.15safe8.53–13.575.79–10.4014.33–23.96safer7.67–14.435.00–11.1912.67–25.62actual9.008.0017.00
Blocked shots
58%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.458.00safe2.97–6.142.03–4.865.00–11.00safer2.43–6.671.55–5.353.98–12.02actual1.001.002.00
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.6710.10safe3.22–7.632.69–6.655.91–14.28safer2.63–8.232.15–7.194.78–15.41actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.1448.90safe44.82–57.4642.58–55.22safer43.23–59.0540.98–56.81actual46.0054.00
Passes
57%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction456434889safe391–521369–498760–1019safer373–539351–516724–1055actual389452841
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction83.3782.94safe79.16–87.5978.43–87.44safer77.86–88.8977.10–88.77
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.019.9620.97safe8.15–13.867.01–12.9115.16–26.77safer7.26–14.756.10–13.8213.36–28.57actual6.0016.0022.00
Offsides
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.223.33safe0.91–3.330.05–2.380.96–5.71safer0.56–3.670.00–2.710.28–6.38actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.023.65safe0.57–2.680.90–3.141.47–5.82safer0.30–2.960.61–3.430.91–6.39actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.945.78safe1.42–4.251.39–4.502.81–8.75safer1.03–4.640.96–4.931.99–9.57actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.48 0.29–2.74 | 2.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 3.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.51 0.36–5.01 | 5.00 | 45% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.73–6.44 2.23–6.94 | 4.00 | 4.02 2.32–5.73 1.85–6.20 | 6.00 | 8.61 5.05–12.17 4.08–13.14 | 10.00 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.94 10.23–17.64 9.20–18.67 | 11.00 | 13.05 9.68–16.43 8.75–17.36 | 12.00 | 26.99 19.91–34.07 17.95–36.03 | 23.00 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 11.05 8.53–13.57 7.67–14.43 | 9.00 | 8.09 5.79–10.40 5.00–11.19 | 8.00 | 19.15 14.33–23.96 12.67–25.62 | 17.00 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.97–6.14 2.43–6.67 | 1.00 | 3.45 2.03–4.86 1.55–5.35 | 1.00 | 8.00 5.00–11.00 3.98–12.02 | 2.00 | 58% 13% 28% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.63 2.63–8.23 | 6.00 | 4.67 2.69–6.65 2.15–7.19 | 3.00 | 10.10 5.91–14.28 4.78–15.41 | 9.00 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 51.14 44.82–57.46 43.23–59.05 | 46.00 | 48.90 42.58–55.22 40.98–56.81 | 54.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 456 391–521 373–539 | 389 | 434 369–498 351–516 | 452 | 889 760–1019 724–1055 | 841 | 57% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.37 79.16–87.59 77.86–88.89 | — | 82.94 78.43–87.44 77.10–88.77 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 11.01 8.15–13.86 7.26–14.75 | 6.00 | 9.96 7.01–12.91 6.10–13.82 | 16.00 | 20.97 15.16–26.77 13.36–28.57 | 22.00 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.91–3.33 0.56–3.67 | 0.00 | 1.22 0.05–2.38 0.00–2.71 | 1.00 | 3.33 0.96–5.71 0.28–6.38 | 1.00 | 58% 21% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.96 | 1.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 3.00 | 3.65 1.47–5.82 0.91–6.39 | 4.00 | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.42–4.25 1.03–4.64 | 3.00 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | 2.00 | 5.78 2.81–8.75 1.99–9.57 | 5.00 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+