Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.322.74safe0.46–2.390.46–2.170.92–4.56safer0.21–2.640.23–2.400.44–5.04
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.469.02safe2.70–6.432.72–6.205.42–12.63safer2.21–6.922.25–6.674.46–13.59
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9213.0927.01safe10.00–17.859.53–16.6619.53–34.50safer8.90–18.948.57–17.6117.48–36.55
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.109.0418.13safe6.15–12.046.35–11.7212.51–23.75safer5.32–12.875.62–12.4510.94–25.32
Blocked shots
47%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.063.757.80safe2.17–5.942.09–5.404.27–11.34safer1.63–6.481.60–5.893.23–12.37
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.055.3610.41safe2.84–7.263.36–7.366.20–14.62safer2.26–7.842.83–7.895.09–15.73
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.7950.33safe43.00–56.5843.54–57.11safer41.33–58.2541.87–58.78
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction462441903safe395–529375–508770–1037safer377–547357–525734–1073
Pass accuracy %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction68.8572.03safe64.82–72.8867.71–76.36safer63.53–74.1766.40–77.67
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0211.3222.34safe8.18–13.868.38–14.2716.56–28.12safer7.43–14.617.63–15.0215.06–29.63
Offsides
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.943.28safe0.18–2.500.84–3.031.03–5.53safer0.00–2.810.55–3.320.44–6.12
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.793.48safe0.64–2.740.66–2.921.30–5.66safer0.37–3.010.37–3.210.74–6.21
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.982.985.96safe1.54–4.421.42–4.542.97–8.95safer1.16–4.801.00–4.962.16–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.21–2.64 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 40% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 4.46 2.72–6.20 2.25–6.67 | 9.02 5.42–12.63 4.46–13.59 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.92 10.00–17.85 8.90–18.94 | 13.09 9.53–16.66 8.57–17.61 | 27.01 19.53–34.50 17.48–36.55 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.10 6.15–12.04 5.32–12.87 | 9.04 6.35–11.72 5.62–12.45 | 18.13 12.51–23.75 10.94–25.32 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.17–5.94 1.63–6.48 | 3.75 2.09–5.40 1.60–5.89 | 7.80 4.27–11.34 3.23–12.37 | 47% 14% 38% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.26 2.26–7.84 | 5.36 3.36–7.36 2.83–7.89 | 10.41 6.20–14.62 5.09–15.73 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 49.79 43.00–56.58 41.33–58.25 | 50.33 43.54–57.11 41.87–58.78 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 462 395–529 377–547 | 441 375–508 357–525 | 903 770–1037 734–1073 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.85 64.82–72.88 63.53–74.17 | 72.03 67.71–76.36 66.40–77.67 | — | 32% 64% |
| Fouls | 11.02 8.18–13.86 7.43–14.61 | 11.32 8.38–14.27 7.63–15.02 | 22.34 16.56–28.12 15.06–29.63 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.81 | 1.94 0.84–3.03 0.55–3.32 | 3.28 1.03–5.53 0.44–6.12 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.01 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.74–6.21 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.54–4.42 1.16–4.80 | 2.98 1.42–4.54 1.00–4.96 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.16–9.76 | 42% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.