Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michael Salisbury · England
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.382.66safe0.32–2.250.52–2.240.84–4.49safer0.06–2.510.27–2.480.33–4.99actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.324.508.82safe2.47–6.182.80–6.215.26–12.39safer1.97–6.682.33–6.684.29–13.35actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0613.1527.21safe10.36–17.779.77–16.5320.13–34.29safer9.33–18.808.84–17.4618.17–36.26actual15.007.0022.00
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.308.6418.94safe7.78–12.816.34–10.9414.12–23.76safer6.92–13.685.54–11.7412.46–25.42actual10.004.0014.00
Blocked shots
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.304.158.45safe2.72–5.892.74–5.575.46–11.45safer2.18–6.422.25–6.054.44–12.47actual5.000.005.00
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.115.1410.25safe2.90–7.313.16–7.126.06–14.43safer2.31–7.912.62–7.654.93–15.56actual5.005.0010.00
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.9456.55safe37.63–50.2650.23–62.86safer36.03–51.8648.63–64.46actual51.0049.00
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction366468834safe301–431403–532704–963safer283–449385–550668–999actual429418847
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction77.2783.67safe73.05–81.4879.16–88.17safer71.75–82.7877.83–89.50
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7311.0422.77safe8.87–14.598.10–13.9916.97–28.58safer7.99–15.477.18–14.9015.17–30.38actual8.0013.0021.00
Offsides
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.422.86safe0.22–2.640.26–2.590.48–5.23safer0.00–2.990.00–2.920.00–5.90actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.254.16safe0.85–2.961.13–3.371.98–6.33safer0.58–3.240.84–3.661.42–6.90actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.595.25safe1.25–4.071.04–4.152.28–8.22safer0.86–4.460.61–4.581.46–9.04actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.25 0.06–2.51 | 4.00 | 1.38 0.52–2.24 0.27–2.48 | 1.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.33–4.99 | 5.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.32 2.47–6.18 1.97–6.68 | 6.00 | 4.50 2.80–6.21 2.33–6.68 | 5.00 | 8.82 5.26–12.39 4.29–13.35 | 11.00 | 41% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.06 10.36–17.77 9.33–18.80 | 15.00 | 13.15 9.77–16.53 8.84–17.46 | 7.00 | 27.21 20.13–34.29 18.17–36.26 | 22.00 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 10.30 7.78–12.81 6.92–13.68 | 10.00 | 8.64 6.34–10.94 5.54–11.74 | 4.00 | 18.94 14.12–23.76 12.46–25.42 | 14.00 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.72–5.89 2.18–6.42 | 5.00 | 4.15 2.74–5.57 2.25–6.05 | 0.00 | 8.45 5.46–11.45 4.44–12.47 | 5.00 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.31 2.31–7.91 | 5.00 | 5.14 3.16–7.12 2.62–7.65 | 5.00 | 10.25 6.06–14.43 4.93–15.56 | 10.00 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 43.94 37.63–50.26 36.03–51.86 | 51.00 | 56.55 50.23–62.86 48.63–64.46 | 49.00 | — | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 366 301–431 283–449 | 429 | 468 403–532 385–550 | 418 | 834 704–963 668–999 | 847 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.27 73.05–81.48 71.75–82.78 | — | 83.67 79.16–88.17 77.83–89.50 | — | — | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.87–14.59 7.99–15.47 | 8.00 | 11.04 8.10–13.99 7.18–14.90 | 13.00 | 22.77 16.97–28.58 15.17–30.38 | 21.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.22–2.64 0.00–2.99 | 2.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.59 0.00–2.92 | 3.00 | 2.86 0.48–5.23 0.00–5.90 | 5.00 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.85–2.96 0.58–3.24 | 1.00 | 2.25 1.13–3.37 0.84–3.66 | 2.00 | 4.16 1.98–6.33 1.42–6.90 | 3.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.25–4.07 0.86–4.46 | 4.00 | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | 3.00 | 5.25 2.28–8.22 1.46–9.04 | 7.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.