Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Thomas Bramall · England
Goals
58%
21%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.093.08safe1.02–2.950.23–1.951.25–4.90safer0.76–3.210.00–2.200.75–5.41actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.233.629.84safe4.37–8.081.91–5.336.28–13.41safer3.87–8.581.44–5.795.31–14.37actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8910.4327.32safe13.19–20.597.05–13.8120.24–34.40safer12.15–21.626.12–14.7418.28–36.36actual14.0010.0024.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction12.056.5718.62safe9.53–14.574.27–8.8713.81–23.44safer8.67–15.433.48–9.6712.14–25.10actual9.008.0017.00
Blocked shots
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.613.398.00safe3.02–6.191.98–4.815.00–10.99safer2.49–6.721.49–5.293.98–12.02actual5.003.008.00
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.014.2110.22safe3.80–8.222.23–6.196.04–14.40safer3.21–8.811.69–6.724.90–15.53actual5.008.0013.00
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction48.7652.74safe42.44–55.0846.43–59.06safer40.84–56.6744.83–60.66actual56.0044.00
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction443488931safe378–509423–553801–1061safer360–526406–570766–1096actual494398892
Pass accuracy %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction84.1381.89safe79.91–88.3477.39–86.40safer78.61–89.6476.06–87.73
Fouls
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction10.559.6020.15safe7.69–13.406.65–12.5414.34–25.95safer6.80–14.295.74–13.4612.54–27.75actual11.008.0019.00
Offsides
51%
21%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.523.63safe0.90–3.320.36–2.691.26–6.01safer0.56–3.660.03–3.020.58–6.68actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.073.74safe0.62–2.730.95–3.191.57–5.92safer0.35–3.000.66–3.481.01–6.48actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.616.55safe1.52–4.352.06–5.173.58–9.52safer1.13–4.741.63–5.602.76–10.34actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 1.02–2.95 0.76–3.21 | 0.00 | 1.09 0.23–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 0.00 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 0.00 | 58% 21% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.23 4.37–8.08 3.87–8.58 | 3.00 | 3.62 1.91–5.33 1.44–5.79 | 4.00 | 9.84 6.28–13.41 5.31–14.37 | 7.00 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.89 13.19–20.59 12.15–21.62 | 14.00 | 10.43 7.05–13.81 6.12–14.74 | 10.00 | 27.32 20.24–34.40 18.28–36.36 | 24.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 12.05 9.53–14.57 8.67–15.43 | 9.00 | 6.57 4.27–8.87 3.48–9.67 | 8.00 | 18.62 13.81–23.44 12.14–25.10 | 17.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 3.02–6.19 2.49–6.72 | 5.00 | 3.39 1.98–4.81 1.49–5.29 | 3.00 | 8.00 5.00–10.99 3.98–12.02 | 8.00 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Corners | 6.01 3.80–8.22 3.21–8.81 | 5.00 | 4.21 2.23–6.19 1.69–6.72 | 8.00 | 10.22 6.04–14.40 4.90–15.53 | 13.00 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 48.76 42.44–55.08 40.84–56.67 | 56.00 | 52.74 46.43–59.06 44.83–60.66 | 44.00 | — | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 443 378–509 360–526 | 494 | 488 423–553 406–570 | 398 | 931 801–1061 766–1096 | 892 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.13 79.91–88.34 78.61–89.64 | — | 81.89 77.39–86.40 76.06–87.73 | — | — | — | 59% 37% |
| Fouls | 10.55 7.69–13.40 6.80–14.29 | 11.00 | 9.60 6.65–12.54 5.74–13.46 | 8.00 | 20.15 14.34–25.95 12.54–27.75 | 19.00 | 54% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.66 | 1.00 | 1.52 0.36–2.69 0.03–3.02 | 1.00 | 3.63 1.26–6.01 0.58–6.68 | 2.00 | 51% 21% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.73 0.35–3.00 | 0.00 | 2.07 0.95–3.19 0.66–3.48 | 1.00 | 3.74 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 1.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.52–4.35 1.13–4.74 | 3.00 | 3.61 2.06–5.17 1.63–5.60 | 3.00 | 6.55 3.58–9.52 2.76–10.34 | 6.00 | 32% 15% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.