Premier League·Regular Season - 4·
Premier League·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michael Oliver · England
Goals
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.703.08safe0.42–2.350.84–2.561.26–4.90safer0.16–2.610.59–2.800.75–5.41actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.655.289.93safe2.79–6.503.57–6.996.36–13.49safer2.29–7.003.10–7.465.40–14.46actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7513.9926.74safe9.04–16.4510.61–17.3719.65–33.82safer8.01–17.489.68–18.3017.69–35.78actual16.006.0022.00
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.769.8417.60safe5.24–10.287.54–12.1412.78–22.42safer4.38–11.146.74–12.9411.12–24.08actual6.002.008.00
Blocked shots
36%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.967.42safe1.88–5.042.54–5.374.42–10.42safer1.34–5.582.06–5.863.40–11.44actual4.003.007.00
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.139.53safe2.19–6.603.16–7.115.35–13.71safer1.60–7.202.62–7.654.22–14.85actual6.007.0013.00
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.5056.61safe36.18–48.8250.29–62.93safer34.59–50.4248.69–64.53actual55.0045.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction4265961023safe361–492532–661893–1152safer343–509514–678857–1188actual487403890
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction81.7687.14safe77.54–85.9782.63–91.65safer76.24–87.2881.30–92.98
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8411.1822.03safe7.99–13.708.24–14.1316.22–27.83safer7.10–14.597.32–15.0414.42–29.63actual17.0010.0027.00
Offsides
62%
18%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.611.484.09safe1.40–3.820.32–2.651.72–6.46safer1.05–4.160.00–2.981.04–7.14actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.334.02safe0.64–2.751.21–3.451.85–6.20safer0.37–3.020.92–3.741.28–6.76actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
47%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.236.75safe2.11–4.931.67–4.783.78–9.72safer1.72–5.321.24–5.212.96–10.54actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.16–2.61 | 0.00 | 1.70 0.84–2.56 0.59–2.80 | 1.00 | 3.08 1.26–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 1.00 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.65 2.79–6.50 2.29–7.00 | 3.00 | 5.28 3.57–6.99 3.10–7.46 | 2.00 | 9.93 6.36–13.49 5.40–14.46 | 5.00 | 36% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.75 9.04–16.45 8.01–17.48 | 16.00 | 13.99 10.61–17.37 9.68–18.30 | 6.00 | 26.74 19.65–33.82 17.69–35.78 | 22.00 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.76 5.24–10.28 4.38–11.14 | 6.00 | 9.84 7.54–12.14 6.74–12.94 | 2.00 | 17.60 12.78–22.42 11.12–24.08 | 8.00 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.88–5.04 1.34–5.58 | 4.00 | 3.96 2.54–5.37 2.06–5.86 | 3.00 | 7.42 4.42–10.42 3.40–11.44 | 7.00 | 36% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.60 1.60–7.20 | 6.00 | 5.13 3.16–7.11 2.62–7.65 | 7.00 | 9.53 5.35–13.71 4.22–14.85 | 13.00 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 42.50 36.18–48.82 34.59–50.42 | 55.00 | 56.61 50.29–62.93 48.69–64.53 | 45.00 | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 426 361–492 343–509 | 487 | 596 532–661 514–678 | 403 | 1023 893–1152 857–1188 | 890 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.76 77.54–85.97 76.24–87.28 | — | 87.14 82.63–91.65 81.30–92.98 | — | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 10.84 7.99–13.70 7.10–14.59 | 17.00 | 11.18 8.24–14.13 7.32–15.04 | 10.00 | 22.03 16.22–27.83 14.42–29.63 | 27.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.61 1.40–3.82 1.05–4.16 | 4.00 | 1.48 0.32–2.65 0.00–2.98 | 1.00 | 4.09 1.72–6.46 1.04–7.14 | 5.00 | 62% 18% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.64–2.75 0.37–3.02 | 1.00 | 2.33 1.21–3.45 0.92–3.74 | 2.00 | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.28–6.76 | 3.00 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.52 2.11–4.93 1.72–5.32 | 1.00 | 3.23 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.21 | 3.00 | 6.75 3.78–9.72 2.96–10.54 | 4.00 | 47% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+