Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
20%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.143.32safe1.21–3.150.28–1.991.50–5.14safer0.96–3.400.06–2.221.02–5.62
Shots on target
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.204.0110.21safe4.33–8.062.27–5.766.61–13.82safer3.85–8.551.81–6.225.65–14.77
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8210.0126.84safe12.90–20.756.45–13.5719.35–34.32safer11.81–21.845.49–14.5317.30–36.37
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.097.3818.47safe8.15–14.034.70–10.0612.85–24.10safer7.32–14.863.96–10.8011.28–25.66
Blocked shots
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.032.767.79safe3.14–6.911.11–4.414.25–11.32safer2.60–7.450.61–4.913.21–12.36
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.633.7810.41safe4.41–8.841.78–5.786.19–14.62safer3.84–9.411.25–6.315.09–15.73
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.6939.87safe52.90–66.4833.08–46.65safer51.23–68.1531.41–48.33
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction6164001016safe549–683333–466882–1149safer531–701316–484846–1185
Pass accuracy %
71%
24%
homeawayprediction80.4375.56safe76.40–84.4671.23–79.88safer75.11–85.7569.92–81.19
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9410.8520.79safe7.11–12.787.91–13.8015.01–26.58safer6.35–13.547.16–14.5513.51–28.08
Offsides
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.464.10safe0.48–2.801.37–3.551.85–6.35safer0.18–3.101.08–3.841.26–6.94
Yellow cards
31%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.883.39safe0.46–2.560.75–3.011.22–5.57safer0.20–2.830.46–3.300.66–6.13
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.656.42safe1.33–4.212.10–5.213.43–9.42safer0.95–4.591.67–5.642.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 1.21–3.15 0.96–3.40 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 3.32 1.50–5.14 1.02–5.62 | 61% 20% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.20 4.33–8.06 3.85–8.55 | 4.01 2.27–5.76 1.81–6.22 | 10.21 6.61–13.82 5.65–14.77 | 70% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.82 12.90–20.75 11.81–21.84 | 10.01 6.45–13.57 5.49–14.53 | 26.84 19.35–34.32 17.30–36.37 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 11.09 8.15–14.03 7.32–14.86 | 7.38 4.70–10.06 3.96–10.80 | 18.47 12.85–24.10 11.28–25.66 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 5.03 3.14–6.91 2.60–7.45 | 2.76 1.11–4.41 0.61–4.91 | 7.79 4.25–11.32 3.21–12.36 | 74% 16% |
| Corners | 6.63 4.41–8.84 3.84–9.41 | 3.78 1.78–5.78 1.25–6.31 | 10.41 6.19–14.62 5.09–15.73 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 59.69 52.90–66.48 51.23–68.15 | 39.87 33.08–46.65 31.41–48.33 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 616 549–683 531–701 | 400 333–466 316–484 | 1016 882–1149 846–1185 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.43 76.40–84.46 75.11–85.75 | 75.56 71.23–79.88 69.92–81.19 | — | 71% 24% |
| Fouls | 9.94 7.11–12.78 6.35–13.54 | 10.85 7.91–13.80 7.16–14.55 | 20.79 15.01–26.58 13.51–28.08 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 2.46 1.37–3.55 1.08–3.84 | 4.10 1.85–6.35 1.26–6.94 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.39 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 31% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.33–4.21 0.95–4.59 | 3.65 2.10–5.21 1.67–5.64 | 6.42 3.43–9.42 2.62–10.23 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.