Premier League·Regular Season - 4·
Premier League·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: John Brooks · England
Goals
20%
25%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.831.582.41safe0.00–1.790.72–2.440.58–4.23safer0.00–2.050.47–2.680.08–4.73actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.854.657.51safe1.00–4.712.95–6.363.94–11.07safer0.50–5.212.48–6.832.97–12.04actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7513.8723.62safe6.05–13.4510.50–17.2516.54–30.71safer5.02–14.489.56–18.1814.58–32.67actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
18%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction6.409.4515.85safe3.89–8.927.15–11.7511.03–20.67safer3.02–9.786.35–12.559.37–22.33actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
25%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.784.066.84safe1.20–4.372.64–5.473.84–9.84safer0.66–4.902.16–5.962.82–10.86actual4.002.006.00
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.795.108.89safe1.58–6.003.12–7.084.71–13.08safer0.99–6.592.59–7.623.58–14.21actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.8558.50safe36.53–49.1652.18–64.82safer34.93–50.7650.58–66.41actual42.0058.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction360513874safe295–426449–578744–1003safer278–443431–595708–1039actual284386670
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction78.2782.59safe74.05–82.4978.08–87.10safer72.75–83.7976.75–88.43
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8013.3225.12safe8.94–14.6510.37–16.2719.31–30.92safer8.05–15.549.46–17.1817.51–32.72actual18.0011.0029.00
Offsides
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.542.75safe0.00–2.420.38–2.710.38–5.13safer0.00–2.760.05–3.040.00–5.80actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.174.58safe1.35–3.461.05–3.292.40–6.75safer1.08–3.740.76–3.581.84–7.31actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.545.46safe1.51–4.330.98–4.092.49–8.43safer1.12–4.720.55–4.521.67–9.25actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.83 0.00–1.79 0.00–2.05 | 0.00 | 1.58 0.72–2.44 0.47–2.68 | 2.00 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.08–4.73 | 2.00 | 20% 25% 55% |
| Shots on target | 2.85 1.00–4.71 0.50–5.21 | 3.00 | 4.65 2.95–6.36 2.48–6.83 | 5.00 | 7.51 3.94–11.07 2.97–12.04 | 8.00 | 20% 68% |
| Total shots | 9.75 6.05–13.45 5.02–14.48 | 12.00 | 13.87 10.50–17.25 9.56–18.18 | 11.00 | 23.62 16.54–30.71 14.58–32.67 | 23.00 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 6.40 3.89–8.92 3.02–9.78 | 7.00 | 9.45 7.15–11.75 6.35–12.55 | 8.00 | 15.85 11.03–20.67 9.37–22.33 | 15.00 | 18% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 2.78 1.20–4.37 0.66–4.90 | 4.00 | 4.06 2.64–5.47 2.16–5.96 | 2.00 | 6.84 3.84–9.84 2.82–10.86 | 6.00 | 25% 14% 61% |
| Corners | 3.79 1.58–6.00 0.99–6.59 | 4.00 | 5.10 3.12–7.08 2.59–7.62 | 3.00 | 8.89 4.71–13.08 3.58–14.21 | 7.00 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 42.85 36.53–49.16 34.93–50.76 | 42.00 | 58.50 52.18–64.82 50.58–66.41 | 58.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 360 295–426 278–443 | 284 | 513 449–578 431–595 | 386 | 874 744–1003 708–1039 | 670 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.27 74.05–82.49 72.75–83.79 | — | 82.59 78.08–87.10 76.75–88.43 | — | — | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.80 8.94–14.65 8.05–15.54 | 18.00 | 13.32 10.37–16.27 9.46–17.18 | 11.00 | 25.12 19.31–30.92 17.51–32.72 | 29.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.21 0.00–2.42 0.00–2.76 | 2.00 | 1.54 0.38–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 2.00 | 2.75 0.38–5.13 0.00–5.80 | 4.00 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 1.35–3.46 1.08–3.74 | 4.00 | 2.17 1.05–3.29 0.76–3.58 | 2.00 | 4.58 2.40–6.75 1.84–7.31 | 6.00 | 45% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 1.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 1.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.51–4.33 1.12–4.72 | 3.00 | 2.54 0.98–4.09 0.55–4.52 | 2.00 | 5.46 2.49–8.43 1.67–9.25 | 5.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.