Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Darren England · England
Goals
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.012.56safe0.59–2.520.15–1.870.74–4.38safer0.33–2.780.00–2.110.23–4.89actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.343.278.61safe3.49–7.201.56–4.985.05–12.18safer2.99–7.701.09–5.444.08–13.14actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1910.4526.65safe12.49–19.907.08–13.8319.57–33.73safer11.46–20.936.15–14.7617.61–35.69actual14.0012.0026.00
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.847.9218.76safe8.33–13.365.62–10.2213.95–23.58safer7.46–14.234.82–11.0212.28–25.24actual8.009.0017.00
Blocked shots
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.542.927.46safe2.96–6.131.51–4.334.46–10.46safer2.42–6.661.02–4.823.44–11.48actual8.006.0014.00
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.283.719.99safe4.07–8.481.74–5.695.81–14.18safer3.48–9.081.20–6.234.68–15.31actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction59.7238.60safe53.40–66.0432.28–44.92safer51.81–67.6330.69–46.52actual62.0038.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction511335847safe446–577271–400717–977safer428–594253–418682–1012actual6443811025
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction88.0479.91safe83.82–92.2575.40–84.41safer82.52–93.5674.07–85.74
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0411.9422.98safe8.18–13.899.00–14.8917.18–28.78safer7.30–14.788.08–15.8115.37–30.59actual14.008.0022.00
Offsides
30%
28%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.302.36safe0.00–2.270.14–2.460.00–4.73safer0.00–2.610.00–2.790.00–5.41actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.303.97safe0.62–2.731.18–3.421.80–6.15safer0.35–3.000.89–3.711.23–6.71actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.425.86safe1.04–3.861.86–4.972.90–8.83safer0.65–4.251.43–5.402.08–9.65actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 0.00 | 1.01 0.15–1.87 0.00–2.11 | 0.00 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.23–4.89 | 0.00 | 50% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.34 3.49–7.20 2.99–7.70 | 2.00 | 3.27 1.56–4.98 1.09–5.44 | 3.00 | 8.61 5.05–12.18 4.08–13.14 | 5.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.19 12.49–19.90 11.46–20.93 | 14.00 | 10.45 7.08–13.83 6.15–14.76 | 12.00 | 26.65 19.57–33.73 17.61–35.69 | 26.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 10.84 8.33–13.36 7.46–14.23 | 8.00 | 7.92 5.62–10.22 4.82–11.02 | 9.00 | 18.76 13.95–23.58 12.28–25.24 | 17.00 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.96–6.13 2.42–6.66 | 8.00 | 2.92 1.51–4.33 1.02–4.82 | 6.00 | 7.46 4.46–10.46 3.44–11.48 | 14.00 | 66% 22% |
| Corners | 6.28 4.07–8.48 3.48–9.08 | 5.00 | 3.71 1.74–5.69 1.20–6.23 | 6.00 | 9.99 5.81–14.18 4.68–15.31 | 11.00 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 59.72 53.40–66.04 51.81–67.63 | 62.00 | 38.60 32.28–44.92 30.69–46.52 | 38.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 511 446–577 428–594 | 644 | 335 271–400 253–418 | 381 | 847 717–977 682–1012 | 1025 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.04 83.82–92.25 82.52–93.56 | — | 79.91 75.40–84.41 74.07–85.74 | — | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 11.04 8.18–13.89 7.30–14.78 | 14.00 | 11.94 9.00–14.89 8.08–15.81 | 8.00 | 22.98 17.18–28.78 15.37–30.59 | 22.00 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.06 0.00–2.27 0.00–2.61 | 2.00 | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.79 | 1.00 | 2.36 0.00–4.73 0.00–5.41 | 3.00 | 30% 28% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.73 0.35–3.00 | 0.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.42 0.89–3.71 | 2.00 | 3.97 1.80–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 2.00 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.04–3.86 0.65–4.25 | 3.00 | 3.42 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.40 | 2.00 | 5.86 2.90–8.83 2.08–9.65 | 5.00 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+