Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michael Oliver · England
Goals
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.472.84safe0.41–2.330.61–2.331.02–4.66safer0.15–2.590.36–2.580.51–5.17actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.974.478.44safe2.11–5.832.76–6.174.87–12.00safer1.61–6.322.29–6.643.90–12.97actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4112.7725.18safe8.71–16.129.39–16.1418.09–32.26safer7.68–17.158.46–17.0716.13–34.22actual9.0012.0021.00
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.6616.87safe5.69–10.726.36–10.9612.05–21.68safer4.83–11.595.56–11.7610.39–23.35actual5.007.0012.00
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.587.12safe1.96–5.122.17–5.004.12–10.12safer1.42–5.661.68–5.483.10–11.14actual2.006.008.00
Corners
39%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.855.2610.11safe2.64–7.053.28–7.245.92–14.29safer2.05–7.652.74–7.784.79–15.42actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.2855.17safe38.97–51.6048.85–61.48safer37.37–53.2047.25–63.08actual46.0054.00
Passes
24%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction406486892safe341–471422–551762–1022safer323–489404–568727–1057actual381474855
Pass accuracy %
14%
82%
homeawayprediction66.8674.86safe62.64–71.0770.36–79.37safer61.34–72.3869.03–80.70
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0811.7621.84safe7.22–12.938.81–14.7016.03–27.64safer6.33–13.827.90–15.6214.23–29.44actual11.0013.0024.00
Offsides
46%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.854.02safe0.97–3.390.68–3.011.65–6.39safer0.62–3.730.35–3.340.97–7.07actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.274.45safe1.12–3.231.15–3.392.27–6.62safer0.85–3.500.86–3.681.71–7.18actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.935.51safe1.17–4.001.37–4.482.54–8.48safer0.78–4.390.94–4.911.72–9.30actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 0.00 | 1.47 0.61–2.33 0.36–2.58 | 1.00 | 2.84 1.02–4.66 0.51–5.17 | 1.00 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.97 2.11–5.83 1.61–6.32 | 2.00 | 4.47 2.76–6.17 2.29–6.64 | 3.00 | 8.44 4.87–12.00 3.90–12.97 | 5.00 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.41 8.71–16.12 7.68–17.15 | 9.00 | 12.77 9.39–16.14 8.46–17.07 | 12.00 | 25.18 18.09–32.26 16.13–34.22 | 21.00 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.69–10.72 4.83–11.59 | 5.00 | 8.66 6.36–10.96 5.56–11.76 | 7.00 | 16.87 12.05–21.68 10.39–23.35 | 12.00 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.96–5.12 1.42–5.66 | 2.00 | 3.58 2.17–5.00 1.68–5.48 | 6.00 | 7.12 4.12–10.12 3.10–11.14 | 8.00 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 4.85 2.64–7.05 2.05–7.65 | 3.00 | 5.26 3.28–7.24 2.74–7.78 | 3.00 | 10.11 5.92–14.29 4.79–15.42 | 6.00 | 39% 49% |
| Possession % | 45.28 38.97–51.60 37.37–53.20 | 46.00 | 55.17 48.85–61.48 47.25–63.08 | 54.00 | — | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 406 341–471 323–489 | 381 | 486 422–551 404–568 | 474 | 892 762–1022 727–1057 | 855 | 24% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.86 62.64–71.07 61.34–72.38 | — | 74.86 70.36–79.37 69.03–80.70 | — | — | — | 14% 82% |
| Fouls | 10.08 7.22–12.93 6.33–13.82 | 11.00 | 11.76 8.81–14.70 7.90–15.62 | 13.00 | 21.84 16.03–27.64 14.23–29.44 | 24.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.18 0.97–3.39 0.62–3.73 | 4.00 | 1.85 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 2.00 | 4.02 1.65–6.39 0.97–7.07 | 6.00 | 46% 20% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.12–3.23 0.85–3.50 | 1.00 | 2.27 1.15–3.39 0.86–3.68 | 2.00 | 4.45 2.27–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 3.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.17–4.00 0.78–4.39 | 2.00 | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.94–4.91 | 2.00 | 5.51 2.54–8.48 1.72–9.30 | 4.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.