Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.032.76safe0.76–2.690.18–1.890.93–4.58safer0.51–2.940.00–2.110.45–5.06
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.643.789.42safe3.78–7.512.03–5.525.81–13.03safer3.29–8.001.57–5.994.86–13.98
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1411.2528.38safe13.21–21.067.68–14.8120.90–35.87safer12.12–22.156.72–15.7718.85–37.92
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.817.0417.85safe7.87–13.754.36–9.7212.23–23.47safer7.04–14.583.62–10.4610.66–25.04
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.343.197.53safe2.46–6.221.54–4.844.00–11.07safer1.91–6.771.05–5.342.96–12.10
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.133.669.79safe3.92–8.351.66–5.665.58–14.00safer3.35–8.921.12–6.194.47–15.11
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.4441.64safe51.65–65.2334.85–48.42safer49.98–66.9033.18–50.09
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction538365903safe471–606298–431769–1037safer453–624281–449734–1073
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction73.9270.85safe69.89–77.9566.53–75.18safer68.60–79.2465.22–76.49
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3710.7622.14safe8.54–14.217.82–13.7116.35–27.92safer7.78–14.977.07–14.4514.85–29.42
Offsides
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.343.89safe0.39–2.711.25–3.431.64–6.15safer0.09–3.010.96–3.721.05–6.74
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.783.43safe0.60–2.700.65–2.911.25–5.61safer0.33–2.960.36–3.200.69–6.16
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.325.84safe1.09–3.961.76–4.872.85–8.83safer0.70–4.351.34–5.302.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.69 0.51–2.94 | 1.03 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.11 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.45–5.06 | 54% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.64 3.78–7.51 3.29–8.00 | 3.78 2.03–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 9.42 5.81–13.03 4.86–13.98 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 17.14 13.21–21.06 12.12–22.15 | 11.25 7.68–14.81 6.72–15.77 | 28.38 20.90–35.87 18.85–37.92 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 10.81 7.87–13.75 7.04–14.58 | 7.04 4.36–9.72 3.62–10.46 | 17.85 12.23–23.47 10.66–25.04 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.46–6.22 1.91–6.77 | 3.19 1.54–4.84 1.05–5.34 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 6.13 3.92–8.35 3.35–8.92 | 3.66 1.66–5.66 1.12–6.19 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 58.44 51.65–65.23 49.98–66.90 | 41.64 34.85–48.42 33.18–50.09 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 538 471–606 453–624 | 365 298–431 281–449 | 903 769–1037 734–1073 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.92 69.89–77.95 68.60–79.24 | 70.85 66.53–75.18 65.22–76.49 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 11.37 8.54–14.21 7.78–14.97 | 10.76 7.82–13.71 7.07–14.45 | 22.14 16.35–27.92 14.85–29.42 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 2.34 1.25–3.43 0.96–3.72 | 3.89 1.64–6.15 1.05–6.74 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.96 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.43 1.25–5.61 0.69–6.16 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.32 1.76–4.87 1.34–5.30 | 5.84 2.85–8.83 2.04–9.65 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.