Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andy Madley · England
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.432.69safe0.30–2.230.57–2.290.87–4.51safer0.04–2.490.32–2.530.36–5.02actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.799.14safe2.49–6.203.09–6.505.58–12.71safer1.99–6.702.62–6.974.61–13.67actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3513.2126.56safe9.65–17.059.84–16.5919.48–33.65safer8.62–18.098.90–17.5217.52–35.61actual13.0012.0025.00
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.058.3617.41safe6.54–11.576.06–10.6612.60–22.23safer5.67–12.435.26–11.4610.93–23.89actual9.008.0017.00
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.473.878.35safe2.89–6.062.46–5.295.35–11.35safer2.36–6.591.97–5.784.33–12.37actual4.007.0011.00
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.075.1010.17safe2.87–7.283.12–7.085.99–14.35safer2.27–7.872.58–7.614.85–15.49actual4.0012.0016.00
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction45.3855.77safe39.07–51.7049.46–62.09safer37.47–53.3047.86–63.69actual40.0060.00
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction386461847safe320–451397–526717–977safer303–469379–543682–1012actual344497841
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction66.5969.37safe62.38–70.8164.87–73.88safer61.07–72.1163.54–75.21
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6210.0821.70safe8.76–14.487.13–13.0215.89–27.50safer7.88–15.366.21–13.9414.09–29.30actual10.007.0017.00
Offsides
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.023.73safe0.50–2.920.86–3.181.36–6.10safer0.16–3.260.52–3.510.68–6.78actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.244.20safe0.91–3.021.11–3.362.02–6.37safer0.63–3.290.82–3.651.46–6.93actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.822.865.68safe1.40–4.231.31–4.412.71–8.64safer1.01–4.620.87–4.851.89–9.47actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.04–2.49 | 3.00 | 1.43 0.57–2.29 0.32–2.53 | 0.00 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.36–5.02 | 3.00 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.49–6.20 1.99–6.70 | 6.00 | 4.79 3.09–6.50 2.62–6.97 | 2.00 | 9.14 5.58–12.71 4.61–13.67 | 8.00 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.35 9.65–17.05 8.62–18.09 | 13.00 | 13.21 9.84–16.59 8.90–17.52 | 12.00 | 26.56 19.48–33.65 17.52–35.61 | 25.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 9.05 6.54–11.57 5.67–12.43 | 9.00 | 8.36 6.06–10.66 5.26–11.46 | 8.00 | 17.41 12.60–22.23 10.93–23.89 | 17.00 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.89–6.06 2.36–6.59 | 4.00 | 3.87 2.46–5.29 1.97–5.78 | 7.00 | 8.35 5.35–11.35 4.33–12.37 | 11.00 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.87–7.28 2.27–7.87 | 4.00 | 5.10 3.12–7.08 2.58–7.61 | 12.00 | 10.17 5.99–14.35 4.85–15.49 | 16.00 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.38 39.07–51.70 37.47–53.30 | 40.00 | 55.77 49.46–62.09 47.86–63.69 | 60.00 | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 386 320–451 303–469 | 344 | 461 397–526 379–543 | 497 | 847 717–977 682–1012 | 841 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.59 62.38–70.81 61.07–72.11 | — | 69.37 64.87–73.88 63.54–75.21 | — | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.76–14.48 7.88–15.36 | 10.00 | 10.08 7.13–13.02 6.21–13.94 | 7.00 | 21.70 15.89–27.50 14.09–29.30 | 17.00 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.16–3.26 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.52–3.51 | 2.00 | 3.73 1.36–6.10 0.68–6.78 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.02 0.63–3.29 | 2.00 | 2.24 1.11–3.36 0.82–3.65 | 0.00 | 4.20 2.02–6.37 1.46–6.93 | 2.00 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.40–4.23 1.01–4.62 | 2.00 | 2.86 1.31–4.41 0.87–4.85 | 3.00 | 5.68 2.71–8.64 1.89–9.47 | 5.00 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.