Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Darren England · England
Goals
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.502.87safe0.41–2.340.64–2.361.05–4.69safer0.15–2.600.39–2.600.54–5.20actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.649.00safe2.50–6.212.93–6.355.44–12.56safer2.00–6.712.47–6.824.47–13.53actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3612.8725.22safe8.65–16.069.49–16.2418.14–32.30safer7.62–17.098.56–17.1816.18–34.26actual17.0011.0028.00
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.858.2817.13safe6.33–11.365.98–10.5812.31–21.94safer5.47–12.235.18–11.3810.65–23.61actual9.0010.0019.00
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.693.276.95safe2.10–5.271.85–4.683.95–9.95safer1.57–5.811.37–5.172.93–10.97actual3.005.008.00
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.584.529.10safe2.37–6.782.55–6.504.92–13.28safer1.78–7.382.01–7.043.79–14.42actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.6644.10safe50.35–62.9837.78–50.42safer48.75–64.5836.18–52.02actual40.0060.00
Passes
84%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction515397913safe450–581333–462783–1043safer433–598315–479748–1078actual337495832
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction80.5877.96safe76.37–84.8073.45–82.46safer75.07–86.1072.12–83.80
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1611.1723.33safe9.31–15.028.22–14.1117.53–29.13safer8.42–15.917.30–15.0315.72–30.94actual13.0010.0023.00
Offsides
26%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.394.03safe0.43–2.851.23–3.551.66–6.41safer0.09–3.200.90–3.890.99–7.08actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.344.66safe1.26–3.371.22–3.462.48–6.84safer0.99–3.640.93–3.751.92–7.40actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.165.92safe1.35–4.181.60–4.712.95–8.89safer0.96–4.571.17–5.142.13–9.71actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.34 0.15–2.60 | 3.00 | 1.50 0.64–2.36 0.39–2.60 | 0.00 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.54–5.20 | 3.00 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.21 2.00–6.71 | 5.00 | 4.64 2.93–6.35 2.47–6.82 | 2.00 | 9.00 5.44–12.56 4.47–13.53 | 7.00 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.65–16.06 7.62–17.09 | 17.00 | 12.87 9.49–16.24 8.56–17.18 | 11.00 | 25.22 18.14–32.30 16.18–34.26 | 28.00 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.85 6.33–11.36 5.47–12.23 | 9.00 | 8.28 5.98–10.58 5.18–11.38 | 10.00 | 17.13 12.31–21.94 10.65–23.61 | 19.00 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 2.10–5.27 1.57–5.81 | 3.00 | 3.27 1.85–4.68 1.37–5.17 | 5.00 | 6.95 3.95–9.95 2.93–10.97 | 8.00 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 4.58 2.37–6.78 1.78–7.38 | 5.00 | 4.52 2.55–6.50 2.01–7.04 | 6.00 | 9.10 4.92–13.28 3.79–14.42 | 11.00 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 56.66 50.35–62.98 48.75–64.58 | 40.00 | 44.10 37.78–50.42 36.18–52.02 | 60.00 | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 515 450–581 433–598 | 337 | 397 333–462 315–479 | 495 | 913 783–1043 748–1078 | 832 | 84% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.58 76.37–84.80 75.07–86.10 | — | 77.96 73.45–82.46 72.12–83.80 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.31–15.02 8.42–15.91 | 13.00 | 11.17 8.22–14.11 7.30–15.03 | 10.00 | 23.33 17.53–29.13 15.72–30.94 | 23.00 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.09–3.20 | 0.00 | 2.39 1.23–3.55 0.90–3.89 | 2.00 | 4.03 1.66–6.41 0.99–7.08 | 2.00 | 26% 19% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.26–3.37 0.99–3.64 | 4.00 | 2.34 1.22–3.46 0.93–3.75 | 1.00 | 4.66 2.48–6.84 1.92–7.40 | 5.00 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.35–4.18 0.96–4.57 | 2.00 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.17–5.14 | 2.00 | 5.92 2.95–8.89 2.13–9.71 | 4.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.