Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Stuart Attwell · England
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.092.51safe0.46–2.390.23–1.950.69–4.33safer0.20–2.650.00–2.190.18–4.84actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.103.758.86safe3.25–6.962.05–5.465.29–12.42safer2.75–7.461.58–5.934.33–13.39actual2.004.006.00
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9711.9826.96safe11.27–18.688.60–15.3619.87–34.04safer10.24–19.717.67–16.2917.91–36.00actual21.0013.0034.00
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.287.7918.07safe7.76–12.805.49–10.0913.25–22.88safer6.90–13.664.69–10.8811.59–24.54actual13.009.0022.00
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.828.14safe2.74–5.912.40–5.235.14–11.14safer2.21–6.441.92–5.724.12–12.16actual8.004.0012.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction6.114.6610.77safe3.91–8.322.68–6.636.59–14.95safer3.31–8.922.14–7.175.45–16.09actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.8052.57safe41.48–54.1146.25–58.89safer39.88–55.7144.66–60.49actual52.0048.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction397440837safe332–462375–504707–967safer314–480358–522672–1002actual504469973
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction67.6371.85safe63.42–71.8567.34–76.36safer62.12–73.1566.01–77.69
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4211.1620.58safe6.57–12.288.21–14.1014.78–26.38safer5.68–13.177.29–15.0212.97–28.18actual6.0012.0018.00
Offsides
53%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.102.84safe0.54–2.960.00–2.260.47–5.21safer0.19–3.300.00–2.590.00–5.89actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.053.87safe0.76–2.870.93–3.171.69–6.04safer0.49–3.150.64–3.461.13–6.61actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.115.54safe1.01–3.841.56–4.662.57–8.51safer0.63–4.231.12–5.101.75–9.33actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.65 | 1.00 | 1.09 0.23–1.95 0.00–2.19 | 0.00 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.18–4.84 | 1.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.25–6.96 2.75–7.46 | 2.00 | 3.75 2.05–5.46 1.58–5.93 | 4.00 | 8.86 5.29–12.42 4.33–13.39 | 6.00 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.97 11.27–18.68 10.24–19.71 | 21.00 | 11.98 8.60–15.36 7.67–16.29 | 13.00 | 26.96 19.87–34.04 17.91–36.00 | 34.00 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 10.28 7.76–12.80 6.90–13.66 | 13.00 | 7.79 5.49–10.09 4.69–10.88 | 9.00 | 18.07 13.25–22.88 11.59–24.54 | 22.00 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.74–5.91 2.21–6.44 | 8.00 | 3.82 2.40–5.23 1.92–5.72 | 4.00 | 8.14 5.14–11.14 4.12–12.16 | 12.00 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 6.11 3.91–8.32 3.31–8.92 | 4.00 | 4.66 2.68–6.63 2.14–7.17 | 4.00 | 10.77 6.59–14.95 5.45–16.09 | 8.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 47.80 41.48–54.11 39.88–55.71 | 52.00 | 52.57 46.25–58.89 44.66–60.49 | 48.00 | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 397 332–462 314–480 | 504 | 440 375–504 358–522 | 469 | 837 707–967 672–1002 | 973 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.63 63.42–71.85 62.12–73.15 | — | 71.85 67.34–76.36 66.01–77.69 | — | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 9.42 6.57–12.28 5.68–13.17 | 6.00 | 11.16 8.21–14.10 7.29–15.02 | 12.00 | 20.58 14.78–26.38 12.97–28.18 | 18.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.19–3.30 | 1.00 | 1.10 0.00–2.26 0.00–2.59 | 0.00 | 2.84 0.47–5.21 0.00–5.89 | 1.00 | 53% 24% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.87 0.49–3.15 | 2.00 | 2.05 0.93–3.17 0.64–3.46 | 1.00 | 3.87 1.69–6.04 1.13–6.61 | 3.00 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.63–4.23 | 4.00 | 3.11 1.56–4.66 1.12–5.10 | 1.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 5.00 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+