Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Peter Bankes · England
Goals
25%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.782.95safe0.20–2.130.92–2.641.12–4.77safer0.00–2.390.68–2.890.62–5.28actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.615.358.95safe1.75–5.463.64–7.065.39–12.52safer1.25–5.963.17–7.524.42–13.48actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
20%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2015.0726.27safe7.49–14.9011.69–18.4519.18–33.35safer6.46–15.9310.76–19.3817.22–35.31actual12.0029.0041.00
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.509.7617.26safe4.98–10.017.46–12.0612.44–22.07safer4.12–10.886.66–12.8610.78–23.73actual11.0017.0028.00
Blocked shots
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.127.90safe2.19–5.362.71–5.544.90–10.90safer1.66–5.892.22–6.023.88–11.92actual1.0013.0014.00
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.784.669.44safe2.58–6.992.68–6.645.26–13.63safer1.98–7.582.15–7.184.13–14.76actual3.0013.0016.00
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.5652.46safe41.24–53.8746.14–58.78safer39.64–55.4744.55–60.38actual43.0057.00
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction447519966safe382–513454–583836–1096safer364–530436–601801–1131actual4515901041
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction78.2282.65safe74.01–82.4478.14–87.15safer72.71–83.7476.81–88.48
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.079.0917.16safe5.21–10.936.14–12.0311.36–22.96safer4.33–11.815.23–12.959.56–24.77actual9.005.0014.00
Offsides
29%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.193.81safe0.41–2.831.02–3.351.43–6.18safer0.07–3.170.69–3.680.76–6.86actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.763.86safe1.04–3.150.64–2.881.68–6.03safer0.77–3.420.35–3.171.12–6.59actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
58%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.455.93safe2.07–4.900.89–4.002.96–8.90safer1.68–5.290.46–4.432.14–9.72actual5.006.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 1.00 | 1.78 0.92–2.64 0.68–2.89 | 1.00 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 2.00 | 25% 23% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.46 1.25–5.96 | 6.00 | 5.35 3.64–7.06 3.17–7.52 | 6.00 | 8.95 5.39–12.52 4.42–13.48 | 12.00 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.20 7.49–14.90 6.46–15.93 | 12.00 | 15.07 11.69–18.45 10.76–19.38 | 29.00 | 26.27 19.18–33.35 17.22–35.31 | 41.00 | 20% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.50 4.98–10.01 4.12–10.88 | 11.00 | 9.76 7.46–12.06 6.66–12.86 | 17.00 | 17.26 12.44–22.07 10.78–23.73 | 28.00 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 2.19–5.36 1.66–5.89 | 1.00 | 4.12 2.71–5.54 2.22–6.02 | 13.00 | 7.90 4.90–10.90 3.88–11.92 | 14.00 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.58–6.99 1.98–7.58 | 3.00 | 4.66 2.68–6.64 2.15–7.18 | 13.00 | 9.44 5.26–13.63 4.13–14.76 | 16.00 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 47.56 41.24–53.87 39.64–55.47 | 43.00 | 52.46 46.14–58.78 44.55–60.38 | 57.00 | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 447 382–513 364–530 | 451 | 519 454–583 436–601 | 590 | 966 836–1096 801–1131 | 1041 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.22 74.01–82.44 72.71–83.74 | — | 82.65 78.14–87.15 76.81–88.48 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 8.07 5.21–10.93 4.33–11.81 | 9.00 | 9.09 6.14–12.03 5.23–12.95 | 5.00 | 17.16 11.36–22.96 9.56–24.77 | 14.00 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.07–3.17 | 1.00 | 2.19 1.02–3.35 0.69–3.68 | 2.00 | 3.81 1.43–6.18 0.76–6.86 | 3.00 | 29% 21% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.15 0.77–3.42 | 3.00 | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | 0.00 | 3.86 1.68–6.03 1.12–6.59 | 3.00 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 3.49 2.07–4.90 1.68–5.29 | 5.00 | 2.45 0.89–4.00 0.46–4.43 | 6.00 | 5.93 2.96–8.90 2.14–9.72 | 11.00 | 58% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.