Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
20%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.083.24safe1.19–3.120.23–1.941.41–5.06safer0.94–3.370.00–2.160.93–5.54
Shots on target
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.684.0510.74safe4.82–8.552.31–5.807.13–14.34safer4.33–9.031.85–6.266.18–15.30
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction17.6910.7928.48safe13.77–21.617.22–14.3520.99–35.96safer12.67–22.716.27–15.3118.94–38.02
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction12.627.3119.93safe9.68–15.564.63–9.9914.31–25.55safer8.85–16.393.89–10.7312.74–27.12
Blocked shots
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.393.148.53safe3.51–7.271.48–4.794.99–12.06safer2.96–7.820.99–5.283.95–13.10
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.524.0310.55safe4.30–8.732.03–6.036.33–14.76safer3.73–9.301.50–6.565.23–15.87
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.2044.82safe48.41–61.9938.03–51.60safer46.74–63.6636.36–53.27
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5584591017safe491–625392–525883–1151safer473–644375–543848–1186
Pass accuracy %
69%
26%
homeawayprediction78.6074.16safe74.57–82.6369.83–78.48safer73.28–83.9268.52–79.79
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5610.1219.68safe6.72–12.407.18–13.0713.90–25.47safer5.97–13.156.43–13.8212.40–26.97
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.281.363.64safe1.12–3.440.27–2.451.39–5.90safer0.82–3.740.00–2.740.80–6.49
Yellow cards
25%
23%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.782.95safe0.12–2.220.65–2.910.77–5.13safer0.00–2.490.36–3.200.21–5.68
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.634.477.11safe1.20–4.072.92–6.034.12–10.10safer0.81–4.462.49–6.453.30–10.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.15 1.19–3.12 0.94–3.37 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 3.24 1.41–5.06 0.93–5.54 | 62% 20% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.68 4.82–8.55 4.33–9.03 | 4.05 2.31–5.80 1.85–6.26 | 10.74 7.13–14.34 6.18–15.30 | 74% 17% |
| Total shots | 17.69 13.77–21.61 12.67–22.71 | 10.79 7.22–14.35 6.27–15.31 | 28.48 20.99–35.96 18.94–38.02 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 12.62 9.68–15.56 8.85–16.39 | 7.31 4.63–9.99 3.89–10.73 | 19.93 14.31–25.55 12.74–27.12 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 5.39 3.51–7.27 2.96–7.82 | 3.14 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 8.53 4.99–12.06 3.95–13.10 | 73% 17% |
| Corners | 6.52 4.30–8.73 3.73–9.30 | 4.03 2.03–6.03 1.50–6.56 | 10.55 6.33–14.76 5.23–15.87 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 55.20 48.41–61.99 46.74–63.66 | 44.82 38.03–51.60 36.36–53.27 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 558 491–625 473–644 | 459 392–525 375–543 | 1017 883–1151 848–1186 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.60 74.57–82.63 73.28–83.92 | 74.16 69.83–78.48 68.52–79.79 | — | 69% 26% |
| Fouls | 9.56 6.72–12.40 5.97–13.15 | 10.12 7.18–13.07 6.43–13.82 | 19.68 13.90–25.47 12.40–26.97 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.28 1.12–3.44 0.82–3.74 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.64 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.17 0.12–2.22 0.00–2.49 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 2.95 0.77–5.13 0.21–5.68 | 25% 23% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 4.47 2.92–6.03 2.49–6.45 | 7.11 4.12–10.10 3.30–10.91 | 19% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.