Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Adam Herczeg · England
Goals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.292.83safe0.57–2.500.43–2.151.01–4.65safer0.31–2.760.19–2.400.50–5.16actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.138.66safe2.68–6.392.42–5.835.10–12.23safer2.18–6.891.95–6.304.13–13.19actual2.004.006.00
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9811.7824.76safe9.28–16.688.41–15.1617.68–31.85safer8.25–17.717.47–16.0915.72–33.81actual13.0012.0025.00
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.457.8617.31safe6.94–11.975.56–10.1612.50–22.13safer6.07–12.834.76–10.9610.84–23.79actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.213.647.85safe2.63–5.792.23–5.064.85–10.85safer2.09–6.331.74–5.543.83–11.87actual6.003.009.00
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.865.1511.01safe3.66–8.073.17–7.136.83–15.19safer3.06–8.662.63–7.665.69–16.32actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.2353.68safe38.92–51.5547.37–60.00safer37.32–53.1545.77–61.60actual51.0049.00
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction407467874safe342–472403–532744–1004safer324–490385–550709–1039actual417414831
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction68.2168.47safe64.00–72.4363.96–72.97safer62.69–73.7362.63–74.30
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0611.6221.68safe7.20–12.928.68–14.5715.88–27.49safer6.32–13.807.76–15.4914.08–29.29actual10.0012.0022.00
Offsides
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.163.60safe0.23–2.651.00–3.321.23–5.98safer0.00–3.000.66–3.660.55–6.65actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.963.76safe0.74–2.850.84–3.081.58–5.93safer0.47–3.130.55–3.371.02–6.50actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.785.24safe1.05–3.881.22–4.332.28–8.21safer0.66–4.270.79–4.761.45–9.03actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.50 0.31–2.76 | 0.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.19–2.40 | 0.00 | 2.83 1.01–4.65 0.50–5.16 | 0.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.39 2.18–6.89 | 2.00 | 4.13 2.42–5.83 1.95–6.30 | 4.00 | 8.66 5.10–12.23 4.13–13.19 | 6.00 | 49% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 12.98 9.28–16.68 8.25–17.71 | 13.00 | 11.78 8.41–15.16 7.47–16.09 | 12.00 | 24.76 17.68–31.85 15.72–33.81 | 25.00 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.45 6.94–11.97 6.07–12.83 | 9.00 | 7.86 5.56–10.16 4.76–10.96 | 4.00 | 17.31 12.50–22.13 10.84–23.79 | 13.00 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.63–5.79 2.09–6.33 | 6.00 | 3.64 2.23–5.06 1.74–5.54 | 3.00 | 7.85 4.85–10.85 3.83–11.87 | 9.00 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.66–8.07 3.06–8.66 | 4.00 | 5.15 3.17–7.13 2.63–7.66 | 3.00 | 11.01 6.83–15.19 5.69–16.32 | 7.00 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 45.23 38.92–51.55 37.32–53.15 | 51.00 | 53.68 47.37–60.00 45.77–61.60 | 49.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 407 342–472 324–490 | 417 | 467 403–532 385–550 | 414 | 874 744–1004 709–1039 | 831 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.21 64.00–72.43 62.69–73.73 | — | 68.47 63.96–72.97 62.63–74.30 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 10.06 7.20–12.92 6.32–13.80 | 10.00 | 11.62 8.68–14.57 7.76–15.49 | 12.00 | 21.68 15.88–27.49 14.08–29.29 | 22.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–3.00 | 2.00 | 2.16 1.00–3.32 0.66–3.66 | 2.00 | 3.60 1.23–5.98 0.55–6.65 | 4.00 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.13 | 2.00 | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | 3.00 | 3.76 1.58–5.93 1.02–6.50 | 5.00 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.05–3.88 0.66–4.27 | 5.00 | 2.78 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.76 | 2.00 | 5.24 2.28–8.21 1.45–9.03 | 7.00 | 36% 18% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.