Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.262.69safe0.46–2.400.41–2.120.87–4.52safer0.21–2.650.18–2.340.39–5.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.414.298.70safe2.55–6.272.55–6.035.09–12.30safer2.06–6.762.08–6.504.13–13.26
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3512.0426.40safe10.43–18.288.48–15.6118.91–33.88safer9.34–19.377.52–16.5716.86–35.94
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.918.8717.78safe5.97–11.856.19–11.5512.15–23.40safer5.14–12.685.45–12.2910.59–24.97
Blocked shots
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.028.17safe2.27–6.032.37–5.674.64–11.71safer1.73–6.581.87–6.173.60–12.74
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.834.6410.46safe3.61–8.042.64–6.646.25–14.68safer3.04–8.612.10–7.175.14–15.78
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.4248.97safe44.63–58.2142.19–55.76safer42.96–59.8840.51–57.43
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction475439914safe408–543372–505781–1048safer390–561355–523745–1084
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction67.4171.33safe63.38–71.4467.00–75.65safer62.09–72.7465.69–76.96
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9710.5821.55safe8.14–13.817.63–13.5215.77–27.33safer7.38–14.576.88–14.2714.26–28.83
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.383.54safe1.00–3.320.29–2.471.29–5.79safer0.70–3.620.00–2.760.70–6.38
Yellow cards
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.673.15safe0.43–2.530.54–2.800.97–5.33safer0.17–2.800.25–3.090.42–5.89
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.643.035.67safe1.20–4.071.47–4.592.68–8.66safer0.81–4.461.05–5.011.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.34 | 2.69 0.87–4.52 0.39–5.00 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.55–6.27 2.06–6.76 | 4.29 2.55–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.70 5.09–12.30 4.13–13.26 | 45% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.43–18.28 9.34–19.37 | 12.04 8.48–15.61 7.52–16.57 | 26.40 18.91–33.88 16.86–35.94 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.91 5.97–11.85 5.14–12.68 | 8.87 6.19–11.55 5.45–12.29 | 17.78 12.15–23.40 10.59–24.97 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.27–6.03 1.73–6.58 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.87–6.17 | 8.17 4.64–11.71 3.60–12.74 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.61–8.04 3.04–8.61 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.10–7.17 | 10.46 6.25–14.68 5.14–15.78 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.42 44.63–58.21 42.96–59.88 | 48.97 42.19–55.76 40.51–57.43 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 475 408–543 390–561 | 439 372–505 355–523 | 914 781–1048 745–1084 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.41 63.38–71.44 62.09–72.74 | 71.33 67.00–75.65 65.69–76.96 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.14–13.81 7.38–14.57 | 10.58 7.63–13.52 6.88–14.27 | 21.55 15.77–27.33 14.26–28.83 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.16 1.00–3.32 0.70–3.62 | 1.38 0.29–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.54 1.29–5.79 0.70–6.38 | 55% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.53 0.17–2.80 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.15 0.97–5.33 0.42–5.89 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 3.03 1.47–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.67 2.68–8.66 1.86–9.47 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.