Premier League·Regular Season - 5·
Premier League·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Robert Jones · England
Goals
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.130.622.75safe1.17–3.100.00–1.480.93–4.57safer0.91–3.360.00–1.720.42–5.08actual5.003.008.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.402.358.76safe4.55–8.260.65–4.065.19–12.32safer4.05–8.760.18–4.534.23–13.29actual6.009.0015.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction17.127.5824.70safe13.42–20.834.20–10.9617.62–31.78safer12.39–21.863.27–11.8915.66–33.74actual16.0017.0033.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.585.0817.66safe10.06–15.102.78–7.3812.84–22.48safer9.20–15.961.98–8.1811.18–24.14actual12.0014.0026.00
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction5.291.967.25safe3.71–6.870.54–3.374.25–10.24safer3.17–7.410.05–3.863.23–11.27actual5.003.008.00
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.513.1010.61safe5.30–9.721.12–5.086.43–14.80safer4.71–10.310.59–5.625.30–15.93actual6.005.0011.00
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction67.4631.36safe61.14–73.7825.05–37.68safer59.55–75.3723.45–39.28actual55.0045.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction659297956safe593–724233–362826–1086safer576–742215–380791–1121actual470385855
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction84.1267.48safe79.90–88.3362.98–71.99safer78.60–89.6361.65–73.32
Fouls
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2411.7521.98safe7.38–13.098.80–14.6916.18–27.78safer6.49–13.987.88–15.6114.38–29.59actual14.0014.0028.00
Offsides
20%
18%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.473.82safe0.14–2.561.31–3.631.45–6.19safer0.00–2.900.98–3.970.77–6.87actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
26%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.033.43safe0.35–2.460.91–3.151.26–5.61safer0.08–2.730.62–3.440.69–6.17actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.10safe0.00–0.180.00–0.260.00–0.44safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.923.475.39safe0.50–3.331.92–5.032.43–8.36safer0.12–3.721.49–5.461.60–9.18actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.13 1.17–3.10 0.91–3.36 | 5.00 | 0.62 0.00–1.48 0.00–1.72 | 3.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 8.00 | 73% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.40 4.55–8.26 4.05–8.76 | 6.00 | 2.35 0.65–4.06 0.18–4.53 | 9.00 | 8.76 5.19–12.32 4.23–13.29 | 15.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 17.12 13.42–20.83 12.39–21.86 | 16.00 | 7.58 4.20–10.96 3.27–11.89 | 17.00 | 24.70 17.62–31.78 15.66–33.74 | 33.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.58 10.06–15.10 9.20–15.96 | 12.00 | 5.08 2.78–7.38 1.98–8.18 | 14.00 | 17.66 12.84–22.48 11.18–24.14 | 26.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 5.29 3.71–6.87 3.17–7.41 | 5.00 | 1.96 0.54–3.37 0.05–3.86 | 3.00 | 7.25 4.25–10.24 3.23–11.27 | 8.00 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.51 5.30–9.72 4.71–10.31 | 6.00 | 3.10 1.12–5.08 0.59–5.62 | 5.00 | 10.61 6.43–14.80 5.30–15.93 | 11.00 | 89% |
| Possession % | 67.46 61.14–73.78 59.55–75.37 | 55.00 | 31.36 25.05–37.68 23.45–39.28 | 45.00 | — | — | 99% |
| Passes | 659 593–724 576–742 | 470 | 297 233–362 215–380 | 385 | 956 826–1086 791–1121 | 855 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.12 79.90–88.33 78.60–89.63 | — | 67.48 62.98–71.99 61.65–73.32 | — | — | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 10.24 7.38–13.09 6.49–13.98 | 14.00 | 11.75 8.80–14.69 7.88–15.61 | 14.00 | 21.98 16.18–27.78 14.38–29.59 | 28.00 | 33% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.14–2.56 0.00–2.90 | 0.00 | 2.47 1.31–3.63 0.98–3.97 | 0.00 | 3.82 1.45–6.19 0.77–6.87 | 0.00 | 20% 18% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.46 0.08–2.73 | 0.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.69–6.17 | 1.00 | 26% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.50–3.33 0.12–3.72 | 4.00 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 1.00 | 5.39 2.43–8.36 1.60–9.18 | 5.00 | 18% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.