Premier League·Regular Season - 38·
Premier League·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
19%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction0.912.233.14safe0.00–1.881.37–3.081.31–4.96safer0.00–2.131.14–3.310.83–5.44
Shots on target
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.426.289.70safe1.56–5.284.53–8.026.09–13.30safer1.07–5.774.07–8.485.14–14.26
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7616.7027.46safe6.83–14.6813.14–20.2619.97–34.95safer5.74–15.7712.18–21.2217.92–37.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8611.3718.23safe3.92–9.808.69–14.0512.61–23.85safer3.09–10.637.95–14.7911.04–25.42
Blocked shots
17%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction2.774.837.61safe0.89–4.663.18–6.494.07–11.14safer0.35–5.202.69–6.983.03–12.18
Corners
18%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.896.3210.21safe1.68–6.104.32–8.326.00–14.43safer1.10–6.683.79–8.864.89–15.53
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction30.1569.83safe23.36–36.9463.04–76.61safer21.69–38.6161.37–78.28
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction290650939safe222–357583–716806–1073safer204–375566–734770–1109
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction65.1484.66safe61.11–69.1780.33–88.98safer59.82–70.4679.02–90.29
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2911.2623.55safe9.45–15.138.31–14.2017.76–29.33safer8.70–15.887.56–14.9516.26–30.83
Offsides
66%
17%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.661.333.99safe1.50–3.820.24–2.421.73–6.24safer1.20–4.120.00–2.711.14–6.83
Yellow cards
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.603.52safe0.87–2.970.47–2.731.34–5.70safer0.60–3.240.18–3.020.78–6.25
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.802.406.20safe2.37–5.240.84–3.963.21–9.19safer1.98–5.630.42–4.382.40–10.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 2.23 1.37–3.08 1.14–3.31 | 3.14 1.31–4.96 0.83–5.44 | 14% 19% 67% |
| Shots on target | 3.42 1.56–5.28 1.07–5.77 | 6.28 4.53–8.02 4.07–8.48 | 9.70 6.09–13.30 5.14–14.26 | 14% 78% |
| Total shots | 10.76 6.83–14.68 5.74–15.77 | 16.70 13.14–20.26 12.18–21.22 | 27.46 19.97–34.95 17.92–37.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 6.86 3.92–9.80 3.09–10.63 | 11.37 8.69–14.05 7.95–14.79 | 18.23 12.61–23.85 11.04–25.42 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.77 0.89–4.66 0.35–5.20 | 4.83 3.18–6.49 2.69–6.98 | 7.61 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.18 | 17% 71% |
| Corners | 3.89 1.68–6.10 1.10–6.68 | 6.32 4.32–8.32 3.79–8.86 | 10.21 6.00–14.43 4.89–15.53 | 18% 73% |
| Possession % | 30.15 23.36–36.94 21.69–38.61 | 69.83 63.04–76.61 61.37–78.28 | — | 99% |
| Passes | 290 222–357 204–375 | 650 583–716 566–734 | 939 806–1073 770–1109 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.14 61.11–69.17 59.82–70.46 | 84.66 80.33–88.98 79.02–90.29 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.45–15.13 8.70–15.88 | 11.26 8.31–14.20 7.56–14.95 | 23.55 17.76–29.33 16.26–30.83 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.12 | 1.33 0.24–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.99 1.73–6.24 1.14–6.83 | 66% 17% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.24 | 1.60 0.47–2.73 0.18–3.02 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.25 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.80 2.37–5.24 1.98–5.63 | 2.40 0.84–3.96 0.42–4.38 | 6.20 3.21–9.19 2.40–10.01 | 64% 14% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.