Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tony Harrington · England
Goals
38%
28%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.152.37safe0.25–2.180.29–2.010.54–4.19safer0.00–2.440.05–2.260.04–4.70actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.857.74safe2.04–5.752.14–5.564.18–11.31safer1.54–6.251.67–6.033.21–12.27actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2812.5724.85safe8.58–15.999.19–15.9517.77–31.94safer7.55–17.028.26–16.8815.81–33.90actual11.0021.0032.00
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.456.9515.40safe5.93–10.974.64–9.2510.58–20.21safer5.07–11.833.85–10.048.92–21.87actual9.0013.0022.00
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.093.407.49safe2.51–5.671.98–4.814.49–10.49safer1.97–6.211.50–5.303.47–11.51actual2.0011.0013.00
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.269.72safe3.25–7.662.28–6.245.54–13.90safer2.66–8.261.75–6.784.41–15.04actual4.007.0011.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.0537.50safe56.73–69.3731.18–43.82safer55.14–70.9629.58–45.42actual56.0044.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction541318859safe476–607253–382729–989safer458–624236–400694–1024actual502368870
Pass accuracy %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction74.3465.91safe70.13–78.5661.40–70.41safer68.83–79.8660.07–71.74
Fouls
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.9311.5318.47safe4.08–9.798.59–14.4812.66–24.27safer3.19–10.677.67–15.4010.86–26.07actual4.0010.0014.00
Offsides
52%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.373.35safe0.77–3.190.20–2.530.98–5.72safer0.43–3.530.00–2.860.30–6.40actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
28%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.173.72safe0.50–2.611.05–3.291.55–5.90safer0.22–2.880.76–3.580.98–6.46actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.675.31safe1.22–4.051.12–4.222.34–8.28safer0.83–4.440.69–4.661.52–9.10actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 2.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 1.00 | 2.37 0.54–4.19 0.04–4.70 | 3.00 | 38% 28% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.89 2.04–5.75 1.54–6.25 | 5.00 | 3.85 2.14–5.56 1.67–6.03 | 4.00 | 7.74 4.18–11.31 3.21–12.27 | 9.00 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.28 8.58–15.99 7.55–17.02 | 11.00 | 12.57 9.19–15.95 8.26–16.88 | 21.00 | 24.85 17.77–31.94 15.81–33.90 | 32.00 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.93–10.97 5.07–11.83 | 9.00 | 6.95 4.64–9.25 3.85–10.04 | 13.00 | 15.40 10.58–20.21 8.92–21.87 | 22.00 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.51–5.67 1.97–6.21 | 2.00 | 3.40 1.98–4.81 1.50–5.30 | 11.00 | 7.49 4.49–10.49 3.47–11.51 | 13.00 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.25–7.66 2.66–8.26 | 4.00 | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.75–6.78 | 7.00 | 9.72 5.54–13.90 4.41–15.04 | 11.00 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 63.05 56.73–69.37 55.14–70.96 | 56.00 | 37.50 31.18–43.82 29.58–45.42 | 44.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 541 476–607 458–624 | 502 | 318 253–382 236–400 | 368 | 859 729–989 694–1024 | 870 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.34 70.13–78.56 68.83–79.86 | — | 65.91 61.40–70.41 60.07–71.74 | — | — | — | 84% 13% |
| Fouls | 6.93 4.08–9.79 3.19–10.67 | 4.00 | 11.53 8.59–14.48 7.67–15.40 | 10.00 | 18.47 12.66–24.27 10.86–26.07 | 14.00 | 83% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.77–3.19 0.43–3.53 | 2.00 | 1.37 0.20–2.53 0.00–2.86 | 1.00 | 3.35 0.98–5.72 0.30–6.40 | 3.00 | 52% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.22–2.88 | 1.00 | 2.17 1.05–3.29 0.76–3.58 | 4.00 | 3.72 1.55–5.90 0.98–6.46 | 5.00 | 28% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.22–4.05 0.83–4.44 | 3.00 | 2.67 1.12–4.22 0.69–4.66 | 3.00 | 5.31 2.34–8.28 1.52–9.10 | 6.00 | 41% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.