Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.272.67safe0.43–2.370.42–2.120.85–4.50safer0.18–2.620.19–2.350.37–4.98
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.309.20safe3.03–6.762.56–6.055.60–12.81safer2.54–7.252.10–6.514.64–13.76
Total shots
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3912.5927.98safe11.46–19.319.03–16.1620.49–35.47safer10.37–20.408.07–17.1218.44–37.52
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.238.0318.26safe7.29–13.185.35–10.7112.64–23.88safer6.46–14.014.61–11.4411.07–25.45
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.443.557.99safe2.56–6.321.90–5.214.46–11.53safer2.01–6.861.41–5.703.42–12.56
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.8610.48safe3.41–7.842.86–6.866.27–14.69safer2.84–8.412.32–7.395.16–15.80
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.1358.75safe35.34–48.9251.97–65.54safer33.67–50.5950.30–67.21
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction354493847safe287–421426–559713–981safer269–439409–577678–1016
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction66.0276.23safe61.99–70.0571.90–80.55safer60.70–71.3470.60–81.86
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.279.9521.22safe8.43–14.117.00–12.8915.44–27.00safer7.68–14.866.26–13.6413.93–28.51
Offsides
33%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.933.55safe0.45–2.780.84–3.021.29–5.80safer0.15–3.080.55–3.310.70–6.39
Yellow cards
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.553.40safe0.80–2.900.42–2.681.22–5.57safer0.53–3.160.13–2.970.66–6.13
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.045.85safe1.37–4.241.48–4.602.85–8.84safer0.98–4.631.06–5.022.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.27 0.42–2.12 0.19–2.35 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.03–6.76 2.54–7.25 | 4.30 2.56–6.05 2.10–6.51 | 9.20 5.60–12.81 4.64–13.76 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.39 11.46–19.31 10.37–20.40 | 12.59 9.03–16.16 8.07–17.12 | 27.98 20.49–35.47 18.44–37.52 | 67% 27% |
| Shots in box | 10.23 7.29–13.18 6.46–14.01 | 8.03 5.35–10.71 4.61–11.44 | 18.26 12.64–23.88 11.07–25.45 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.44 2.56–6.32 2.01–6.86 | 3.55 1.90–5.21 1.41–5.70 | 7.99 4.46–11.53 3.42–12.56 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.41–7.84 2.84–8.41 | 4.86 2.86–6.86 2.32–7.39 | 10.48 6.27–14.69 5.16–15.80 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 42.13 35.34–48.92 33.67–50.59 | 58.75 51.97–65.54 50.30–67.21 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 354 287–421 269–439 | 493 426–559 409–577 | 847 713–981 678–1016 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.02 61.99–70.05 60.70–71.34 | 76.23 71.90–80.55 70.60–81.86 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.27 8.43–14.11 7.68–14.86 | 9.95 7.00–12.89 6.26–13.64 | 21.22 15.44–27.00 13.93–28.51 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.78 0.15–3.08 | 1.93 0.84–3.02 0.55–3.31 | 3.55 1.29–5.80 0.70–6.39 | 33% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 1.55 0.42–2.68 0.13–2.97 | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.37–4.24 0.98–4.63 | 3.04 1.48–4.60 1.06–5.02 | 5.85 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.